Top Set Decision 200nl

[Changethief8]

This hand came up the other day and my decision in real time seemed pretty easy, but the more I look it over, the more I am wondering if it was the correct decision. Let me know what you guys think, thanks for the input.

Villain is a pretty good reg running at 21/17 over 2k hands with a 6% 3b. Fold to Cbet is 45%. No really specific reads, always seems pretty solid, the only note i have on him getting out of line was him 4b shoving 78s otb 4 handed.

***** Hand History for Game 427336199 ***** (Absolute)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, March 28, 07:08:22 ET 2011
Table FOREST DR (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 3: ESKOTEIRO ( $210.90 USD )
Seat 4: THXU4PIZZA ( $325.40 USD )
Seat 5: OMGWTFLOL22 ( $63.00 USD )
Seat 6: _QWERT_ ( $213.40 USD )
Seat 1: SERGIOCOOL ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 2: THTSWATSHESD ( $213.75 USD )
THXU4PIZZA posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
OMGWTFLOL22 posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to THTSWATSHESD [ Ks Kc ]
_QWERT_ folds
SERGIOCOOL folds
THTSWATSHESD raises [$6.00 USD]
ESKOTEIRO calls [$6.00 USD]
THXU4PIZZA folds
OMGWTFLOL22 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, Kd, Qh ]
THTSWATSHESD bets [$10.00 USD]
ESKOTEIRO calls [$10.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
THTSWATSHESD bets [$26.00 USD]
ESKOTEIRO calls [$26.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3h ]
THTSWATSHESD bets [$67.00 USD]
ESKOTEIRO raises [$168.90 USD]
THTSWATSHESD

Is he ever doing this with worse sets?? Or does it seem likely that flushes are the only part of his shoving range?

[Konscious]

pretty bad turn...

given your assessment, seems fairly unlikely for him to be doing this with any worse sets... you're showing quite a bit of strength, so I don't think he is going to be turning made hands into bluffs given your range of nutty/air type hands

He is obv more likely to be shoving J10 than worse sets, but even w/ J10... hard to get value from sets or worse on this board. And if he were bluffing, i think he'd be more likely to raise the turn.

Seems like a fairly easy fold vs most players... I'm curious what happened now

[ThrillCory90]

What are you trying to get value from exactly on the river. Do you have a dynamic where you can get value on the river here?

[FrankJones]

I guess I have the same question as Will here. Why are you firing away on all three streets when the turn card was literally the worst possible card you could see?

I am not sure what to tell you about the river shove on his part. I don't think middle hand are in his range. I think he either has you beat or has set up an elaborate bluff by calling you down and river shoving to make it look immensely strong considering the amount of strength you are showing.

I don't like to fold top set with so much already in the pot (or ever), so I would have tried to play a smaller pot once that turn card hit.

[Changethief8]

pretty bad turn...

given your assessment, seems fairly unlikely for him to be doing this with any worse sets... you're showing quite a bit of strength, so I don't think he is going to be turning made hands into bluffs given your range of nutty/air type hands

He is obv more likely to be shoving J10 than worse sets, but even w/ J10... hard to get value from sets or worse on this board. And if he were bluffing, i think he'd be more likely to raise the turn.

Seems like a fairly easy fold vs most players... I'm curious what happened now

Yea it was definitely a terrible turn, i agree that its hard for him to get value from worse on this board, so this makes me think its always the nuts, or always a bluff.

[Changethief8]

What are you trying to get value from exactly on the river. Do you have a dynamic where you can get value on the river here?

I thought i would get value from all worse sets, i guess that isnt much, but i think i decided that check calling sucked, given that all the random hands he can have most likely are just going to check back and not bet on the river. I doubt he is calling with Adqx, or some random 2 pair hand, but i figured i would leave it up to him to make a bad call, as opposed to just give him a free showdown when he does have a worse hand. The only hands i think he is turning into bluffs here are probably adtx, or kt or kj with a diamond which are both unlikely given that i have kings.

I think he has seen me be aggressive and brl 3 streets frequent enough for him to give me a call sometimes with non-nut type hands, but i guess its super thin given the board.

[Changethief8]

I guess I have the same question as Will here. Why are you firing away on all three streets when the turn card was literally the worst possible card you could see?

I am not sure what to tell you about the river shove on his part. I don't think middle hand are in his range. I think he either has you beat or has set up an elaborate bluff by calling you down and river shoving to make it look immensely strong considering the amount of strength you are showing.

I don't like to fold top set with so much already in the pot (or ever), so I would have tried to play a smaller pot once that turn card hit.

I bet the turn because i think its better to bet again, as opposed to letting him check behind on hands like kt or at with a diamond, or another type of drawing hand, or even kq even though it would be rare.

If i do check and he bets turn i don't think i have enough info to fold at that point, and i imagine since he is solid player, he would be betting the river again if he decided to bluff in this spot putting a ton of pressure on me. Do i give up on the river when he brls off?

[ThrillCory90]

The turn is a must bet. We get a ton of value and he checks behind a lot.

The river I love betting if you have a dynamic to be able to get called down by KT and Qx at a decent clip. Otherwise you don't get value and you shouldn't bet in a spot where if you get action you are beat more often than not. Check/decide river IMO. Can't say whether to check/call or check/fold because we don't know his betsizing yet. If his river sizing makes me think that worse value hands like KQ, maybe a hand liek AJ with the A of diamonds, and then of course people always have a random "wtf is he doing?" range too, then I call. Perhaps his sizing when we check will be such that we can pretty confidently range him such that we fold. I always bet 66 on the river though since KQ, Kx is way more likely if we don't have KK..

edit: forgot to mention that he doesn't have very many sets in his range IMO. It's hard to have a set in general. And then add to that 33 and 99 fold the flop almost always. QQ 3bets pre more often than not. Sets raise the flop a lot.

[Changethief8]

The turn is a must bet. We get a ton of value and he checks behind a lot.

The river I love betting if you have a dynamic to be able to get called down by KT and Qx at a decent clip. Otherwise you don't get value and you shouldn't bet in a spot where if you get action you are beat more often than not. Check/decide river IMO. Can't say whether to check/call or check/fold because we don't know his betsizing yet. If his river sizing makes me think that worse value hands like KQ, maybe a hand liek AJ with the A of diamonds, and then of course people always have a random "wtf is he doing?" range too, then I call. Perhaps his sizing when we check will be such that we can pretty confidently range him such that we fold. I always bet 66 on the river though since KQ, Kx is way more likely if we don't have KK..

Yea i agree with you and like your analysis, thanks for the help.

Fwiw, i folded, sorry i cant make it more exciting by telling everyone what he turned up with.

[paratrooper99]

Sizing is a bit small. Flop and Turn should have been pot sized, making a river all-in seem standard. Ship it. If he has the flush, your beat. Oh well, you get value from 2 pair, AA, and all other sets. He's only shipping it with K-high flush or better. 2 combos beat you. Get it in. Also, his story doesn't add up. Being oop, he would have either check raised the turn or led the river with a made flush. Instacall.