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Thread: Nicks Winter Classic ME AK mid tourney. What's your play?

  1. #1

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    Nicks Winter Classic ME AK mid tourney. What's your play?

    This hand took place a week and a half ago. Dan (selfproclaim) was at my table. I asked him about this hand and he suggested I post it here, without results, to see what everyone else thinks. Some of the numbers may not be exact but here is what I have.

    I have about 48k in chips.
    Average stack is around 42k.
    30 minute levels.
    Table is 8 handed.
    Blinds 800/1600 200 ante.

    31 players left, 3rd hand into the level and I pickup AKo in cutoff. I raise to 3500. Button reraises to 13,200.

    Have only played with this player for about 20 minutes. Haven't seen much from him but here is what I have:

    He has approximately 90k chips. I have seen him raise in lp and fold to a 12-15 bb shove. Haven't seen any showdowns. The hand immediately prior to my hand, guy to my right raises to 3200 and villain 3bets to 10.2k. Original raiser folds and villain shows TT.

    So once I again, I raise to 3500, villain 3bets to 13.2k. What range do you put him on and what would you do?
    Last edited by Shabazz Jenkins; 03-07-2012 at 12:31 AM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shabazz Jenkins View Post
    This hand took place a week and a half ago. Dan (selfproclaim) was at my table. I asked him about this hand and he suggested I post it here, without results, to see what everyone else thinks. Some of the numbers may not be exact but here is what I have.

    I have about 48k in chips.
    Average stack is around 42k.
    30 minute levels.
    Table is 8 handed.
    Blinds 800/1600 200 ante.

    31 players left, 3rd hand into the level and I pickup AKo in cutoff. I raise to 3500. Button reraises to 13,200.

    Have only played with this player for about 20 minutes. Haven't seen much from him but here is what I have:

    He has approximately 90k chips. I have seen him raise in lp and fold to a 12-15 bb shove. Haven't seen any showdowns. The hand immediately prior to my hand, guy to my right raises to 3200 and villain 3bets to 10.2k. Original raiser folds and villain shows TT.

    So once I again, I raise to 3500, villain 3bets to 13.2k. What range do you put him on and what would you do?
    Cant really put him on a range with such few hands played. I think most people would say shove or fold here. The puss in me would flat and reevaluate the flop.
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  3. #3
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    Your bet is 300 more than other hero and his 3bet has gone up 3k...fishy.... I would say he is a bit lighter using his new image after showing TT..

    He is 88+, AJs+ And I shove.
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    In the first hand, the villain's three-bet was 3.2x in position. This is slightly bigger than optimal sizing, but not really that out of the ordinary, and seems to indicate that he had a real hand.

    In the second hand, his three-bet was 3.8x, he was in position and he just showed a strong hand. These are three reasons why his second three-bet looks more like a steal to me.

    If you call his re-raise, there would be 30,400 chips in the pot, and you would only have 34,600 chips behind, giving you a stack to pot ratio (SPR) of 1.1. You would be out of position, and have no real options, other than guessing, unless an ace or king happened to flop.

    When you raise with A-Ko in the cutoff position, you are at the very top of your hand range. Whenever you are at the top of your hand range, it is usually best to try to get the chips in the middle. If you can get your chips in the middle with 30 BB holding A-Ko, that's almost always a good situation in tournaments.

    I shove here every time.
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    I was at the table and remember thinking that there wasn't any need to go broke in this spot. I do have history with villain and know that he at a minimum has a 1010-QQ. With the structure, I don't think going broke half way through the tournament on a race is the optimal play. One thing that I am pretty sure of is that villain was in blind and this was the reason for the increase in raise amount. If we are in position, does this change the decision to ship or flat? The other factor is that shabazz hadn't played a hand in two orbits, so villain definitely has a big hand. Also, based on his stack size and raise amount, he is never folding. So we are behind with 30 plus blinds, do we really need to go broke?
    Last edited by selfproclaim; 03-08-2012 at 11:21 AM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by selfproclaim View Post
    I was at the table and remember thinking that there wasn't any need to go broke in this spot. I do have history with villain and know that he at a minimum has a 1010-QQ. With the structure, I don't think going broke half way through the tournament on a race is the optimal play. One thing that I am pretty sure of is that villain was in blind and this was the reason for the increase in raise amount. If we are in position, does this change the decision to ship or flat? The other factor is that shabazz hadn't played a hand in two orbits, so villain definitely has a big hand. Also, based on his stack size and raise amount, he is never folding. So we are behind with 30 plus blinds, do we really need to go broke?
    we should never flat here, in position or out. flatting 30% of our stack to try to hit an a or k is not good. especially with antes, we have a plus ev shove pre-flop against pretty much anybody, except for the craziest nits. we have 43% vs a range 99+, ako, aqs. we can also get him to incorrectly fold a good portion of his range (he raise/folded vs 12-15bbs before). if he is using your risk averse logic he could conceivably fold up to jj and ak. i also think if he was in the blinds he may have a slightly wider value range because he should be worried about playing oop. in general, to put someone on such a narrow range, TT+, is usually a mistake imo. instead of asking "do we really need to go broke' ask "am i making money making this move." in this case, unless villain is the nittiest of nits we are making money.
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    Quote Originally Posted by selfproclaim View Post
    I do have history with villain and know that he at a minimum has a 1010-QQ. With the structure, I don't think going broke half way through the tournament on a race is the optimal play. One thing that I am pretty sure of is that villain was in blind and this was the reason for the increase in raise amount. If we are in position, does this change the decision to ship or flat? The other factor is that shabazz hadn't played a hand in two orbits, so villain definitely has a big hand. Also, based on his stack size and raise amount, he is never folding. So we are behind with 30 plus blinds, do we really need to go broke?
    I agree with everything Kevin said, and disagree with much of the quote above. I'm shoving here 99% of the time, unless I am incredibly certain that villian is, like Kevin said, the nittiest of nits. I'll explain why:

    - In the very last hand, the opponent showed his cards. This can mean different things but a lot of times it means, "I'm showing you this hand because I want you to know I had it, and I want you to believe me when I do it again." Obv there can be some leveling here, and people trying to suck you in knowing you'd think this way.

    - I have a hard time believing that our villain has only TT+ (<3% of hands). If he has over 50 BBs at this stage of the tournament, and has just shown a 3bet (AKA we know he does 3bet TT), then chances are he's 3betting wider than that in this spot. Decent players 3bet LP raisers wider. So without knowing much more than what has been said here, I would assume his range is something closer to 5% of hands (88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo).

    - If you fold, you are now showing a raise-fold in late position to a 3bet. You're folding AKo, the top of any range. If you're folding this premium hand, under what circumstances are you ever 4betting? Have you opened yourself up to more light 3bets from observant opponents? And are you making yourself too easy to play against?

    - Kevin suggested to ask yourself, "am I making money with this move?" I couldn't agree more. With AKo here, your 4Bet-shove is extremely +EV. And because it is such, you're missing a potential golden opportunity to add a big chunk to your stack, either by

    1) getting your money in good vs AQ, AJ, KQ
    2) winning a big flip
    3) winning a huge preflop pot w/o showdown if he folds

    You already witnessed the villain raise-folding to a 12-15 BB shove, which given the circumstances could be quite spewy, and more importantly to me, increases the likelihood he'd be willing to make a bad 3bet-fold. Furthermore, you can't underestimate the advantages that come from wielding a big-stack at this stage of the tournament. Double now and you're looking around 70 BBs. Having this stack gives you tremendous flexibility in future hands, allowing you to open more pots, and make more plays. It might have a great structure but it's still a live tournament... you're not going to get to play all that many hands, and 30 BBs isn't going to last you forever. Maximize your expectation the rest of the way and play for the win!
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    Is there any circumstance that would cause you to fold in this spot? My biggest edge comes short handed, final table bubble, and money bubble. If i lose a race half way through the tournament I lose this strength and an opportunity to exploit the field. I think there are some great points in the posts above, and I probably have a real hard time folding in this spot. I just know what I felt after the hand played out. Also, I dont agree that villain will sometimes fold. His bet size says I am never folding and I have a good pair. When we ship 30 plus big blinds, we are saying we have AK. Pretty elementary, we are agreeing to race for our tournament and he is putting 40% in pre-flop ahead to become the chip leader. Villain is extremely tight, worst hand he showed all night was 10,10. Finally, the field for this ME was extremely weak.

  10. #10
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    Is there any circumstance that would cause you to fold in this spot?
    Not me, no.


    If i lose a race half way through the tournament I lose this strength and an opportunity to exploit the field.
    I have played my best poker when I didn't worry about losing races. The strength of our shove isn't derived solely from the opportunity to win a race. A large piece of the puzzle here is that we have major fold equity. Let's assume it would be a race if he called. That gives us 50% equity when he's guaranteed to call. But he should fold here most of the time. Let's just round off and call it 50% of the time. This means that we have 75% equity. We just can't give up spots this good in tournament poker.


    Also, I dont agree that villain will sometimes fold.
    If he never folds here, that is a mistake in my opinion.


    His bet size says I am never folding and I have a good pair.
    I disagree. He should be re-raising the same amount with hands like A-Jo or 6-6.


    When we ship 30 plus big blinds, we are saying we have AK.
    I completely disagree with this. If we have 10-10 or A-A I think we should make the same move in this spot. If we were to min-re-raise with our most premium hands, then we turn our hand face up.


    Pretty elementary, we are agreeing to race for our tournament
    Not at all. If you make this assumption, then you are saying that you have no fold equity, and that is definitely not the case here.


    Villain is extremely tight, worst hand he showed all night was 10,10.
    I am not sure this piece of information was included in the original post. Curious how big the sample size was though. For example, did he only show the one hand, making the 10-10 the best and worst hand he showed all night? Even if so, I get my chips in here. This spot is nearly always too good to pass up in my opinion.

    Edit: Just reread the initial post. We only had twenty minutes of history with the villain, and he had only shown down one hand. We had also seen him raise-fold before. So we do have some amount of fold equity, and this is a clear shove. Even if it turns out that he had pocket queens or jacks, the correct play here is to get the chips in the middle in my opinion.
    Last edited by Chipless Wonder; 03-10-2012 at 12:23 AM.
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