Calling all math wizards

**donkeysmasher** · 07-20-2009 05:47 PM

I need someone with a poker program or someone that is just good at the poker math. I was in my regular cash game on Saturday night. The stakes are .50/1.00 which is lower than I like but I like this particular game. Anyway, I struggled for a few hours just not getting any cards but I did manage to run my $200 buy in up to $281 when the following hand came up. There was a straddle and about 5 people called the straddle. The straddler then took his option and raised it to $15 on top, so $17 total. The first original caller called the $15, as i was making my decision on whether or not to call with my pocket fours and take a chance, the guy after me called out of position. This gave me much appreciated information since I now believed to be getting a good price to call with my small pair and mine for a set especially since the out of position caller and the straddler both had $500+. So I call. The four of us see a flop of Ad-4c-10c. The Straddler checked and the next guy bet $50 I thought for a minute about flat calling here and decided its a bad idea with two people to act behind me so I did the opposite. i moved all in for my remaining $264. I was hoping to push out any flush draws and maybe get a call from two pair or maybe even top top. The guy to my left calls and the others fold. He shows A-5 both clubs. Top pair and a flush draw with a backdoor straight draw. A 5 hit the turn giving him two pair and more outs but a Ks on the river made me the winner. Now in my opinion he made a call that was a little loose. No way he thought he was ahead there with the a bet and raise all in in front of him and he had to call $264 in a what was now a $384 pot. Not good enough to chase the straight( a little less than 1.5-1). However, not knowing that I had a set I guess you could make a case that he is barely a dog to any other hand and probably even money to top pair better kicker or even two pair. So my question to the math wizards is, what was the percentage after the flop? Was I as big a favorite as I thought or is he right and that he wasnt that big a dog? Im guessing he was a 2.8-1 dog or therebouts.

For the record, I told him it was great call and that he just got unlucky since he is a habitual chaiser and big supplier of my profits.

**siash69** · 07-20-2009 06:08 PM

He has 9 outs for his flush which gives him odds of 2-1 with 2 cards to come if he calls your shove in a pot that is offering him 1.45-1 pot odds, factor in his backdoor straight possibilities and he is going to be just under 2-1 on a call so its a marginal situation.

**PokerBroker** · 07-20-2009 06:12 PM

It is very likely he was assuming that he had 3 additional outs for two pair with the fives if he didn't put you on a set... so 12 outs twice with a backdoor straight draw is a marginal call at best with those odds...

People generally forget to acknowledge the fact that "getting the right odds to call" an all-in in this type of situation is simply a break-even calculation in the long run... you really should be looking for opportunities to get you chips in the pot when the odds are in your FAVOR as you did with your set

**ThrillCory90** · 07-20-2009 06:21 PM

His call was as standard as it gets. Folding without some kind of stellar read would be terrible.

**ThrillCory90** · 07-20-2009 06:36 PM

Originally Posted by PokerBroker

It is very likely he was assuming that he had 3 additional outs for two pair with the fives if he didn't put you on a set... so 12 outs twice with a backdoor straight draw is a marginal call at best with those odds...

If Villian's has 12 outs it is not marginal at all. He has something like 45% equity if that is the case.

**donkeysmasher** · 07-20-2009 09:03 PM

Its not a call I would have made. It doesnt take that great a read to know that Ace-rag is crushed when there is a $50 bet and $264 all in in front of you.

**wreaks** · 07-20-2009 09:43 PM

Making that CALL is a bad play. If you had only called, him raising to 175 and then calling your all in is a good play.

**ThrillCory90** · 07-20-2009 09:59 PM

I'm not putting AA/TT in your range. That makes Ax of clubs is essentially the 3rd nuts. If an all-in narrows your range down to ONLY 44 and AT, then the call is bad.

But if this is the case, I'm not a fan of the all-in at all. I would prefer a play that keeps your range wide encourages top pair w/ nut flush draw to put more money in the pot.

If top pair nut flush draw should fold, then AT, AK, A4 all should fold also. There is no range you can have that would make AT a good call and Axclubs a bad one. Axclubs is going to be doing better against your range equity-wise than AT will in most cases.

**PokerBroker** · 07-20-2009 10:11 PM

Originally Posted by FearToxin90

If Villian's has 12 outs it is not marginal at all. He has something like 45% equity if that is the case.

I certainly, but respecfully, disagree with this theory. While the math may dictate that this is "profitable" long run lets actually take a look at it...

If I make this call 100 times and win 45% of the time, I will win $17,280 in those hands... In the 55% that I lose I will lose 14,520... so YES this is a net profit in the long run of $2760... seems big right?

Total BS, in this situation where I netted $2760, I actually only made $2.76 each time (remember 100 hands) I risked $264... this is a long term ROI of barely more than 1%...

This is exactly why I am such a staunch opponent of basic math concepts in poker when they are not supported by game theory... there are simply going to be so many more situations which are much more profitable to get your money into the pot... I always stress that odds to call an all-in is simply a BREAK EVEN proposition and you should always be looking for ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR situations... you'll absolutely never build your bankroll if you insist on continually flipping coins and playing break even poker

Your opponent made a bad call investing so much money into making this call even if he thought he had 12 outs, of course we love these calls don't we?

**donkeysmasher** · 07-20-2009 10:16 PM

I see your point. And to be honest, an all in right there narrows my range to a set. Im not shoving all in with two pair right there. But this opponent doesnt think about any of that. Any good player that know me knows I had 10-10 or 4-4. If I had A-A I wouldnt have just called the $15 preflop. I wanted to push out the flush draws or atleast make them pay dearly. While A-K should be a fold in that spot as well, i would fold A-K there, there are a lot of players especially at .50/1.00 who will not fold top top. So I figured my all in would make hime fold a flush draw but he would likely call with any decent made hand, top pair decent kicker or certainly two pair. But even if he figures 12 outs, there are 5 known cards and 47 unknown cards. So he is 35-12 or almost 3-1 there and getting less than 1.5-1 on his money. But again, this opponent doesnt know anything about odds he just knew he had top pair with a flush draw. I just wondered if someone had pokerstove or something and wouldnt mind running the scenerio and seeing what the results were.

I realize that my math here indicates the chance of hitting on the next card and doesnt take into account that there two cards to come.