Should I Jump?

[dyehard]

Originally Posted by FrankJones

Cambo is right. I allowed a standard downswing to basically destroy my poker career. Granted, I was making mistakes as well, but even with those mistakes, I was a 15 to 20% ROI player. If I made fewer mistakes, I could have been running at 30% in the long term, which would have made my downswings a bit less severe....

But still, for a 15% to 20% Roi player, my downswing was standard, yet I allowed it to

a) make me think I couldn't beat the games
B) take months off at a time
c) Ruin my mindset.

This is exactly how I feel and what I am going through. I haven't resorted to option b), but I am considering it. Last year I played more poker than ever before. Every couple of months I would go through stretches where I would run into never ending 2 and 3 outers. I also got through it and chalked it up to variance. Fast forward to today. I am in that same stretch but seemingly 10x worse, and I am having an absolutley horrible time dealing with it. My mindset is wrecked.

I joined BBP in December 2008. By Spring 2009, my game improved 100 fold and I was starting to put up numbers to prove it. Over the course of 4-5 months, I won the Midnight Madness, and had a total of 5 cashes between $1,100 - $3,700, 11 Final Tables out of 520 MTT's, cashed in my first ever WSOP event, and placed 3rd in the $1,500 NL Indiana State Poker Championship Event. During that time I had a 2 month period where my 45m ROI was around 50% playing thr $10's and $24's. I was profitable in teh 45's in every month from April 2009 - December 2009,

Since September, I have had only 1 winning month (a paltry $250 profit) and am in the middle of my 3rd straight losing month playing the 45's. Even when I was running at my best, I could never be put in the same category as legitimate ballers, but I did have plenty of confidence and felt I could be profitable long term. Like EJ told Scott, maybe I don't really understand variance. My volume is modest, but I now have a years worth of data since I joined BBP and over 3,300 total games played. My current downswing is about 1,000 games or about 30% of all SNG + MTT I have played, . My current 45m break even/downswing is ~350 games or 25% of all the 45's that I have played.

ALL GAMES
TotROI.jpg

45 man
all 45 graph.jpg

My questions and thoughts:
I am afraid that I am no better and no worse than the average recreational player.

My "downswing" accounts for 25%-30% of games played. Can I still blame this on variance?

Does anyone have any honest opinions about my skill and knowledge of the game based on the times you have railed me or by the hand history discussion we have had either on the forum or in person?

What course of action should I now take?

What is the tallest and most accessible building in Columbus?

If you have taken the time to read through this and respond, I truely thank you and will accept and opinions, feedback, and constructive criticism graciously.

[rryu87]

pretty sure by looking at the graph of this legendary fish called rryu87 you can easily be assured that downswings are nothing. well lets be honest, I think you are not in downswing, but in break even stretch. ur sng graph is telling that you are breaking even right now, and this could be due to leaks or run bad. ur losing most of ur money from mtts during the last 1k games, so either bink one soon, or dont play them...

[AdamS]

my tournament notes on you (which unfortantely i cant reveal in detail) paint you as an above average player who requires caution on my part

[TYggShipIt]

My notes say the same, something about playing KQ suited too..

Hang in there man, i'm running a losing race right now, but they say it'll turn around.

[Vestvik7]

Bruce do you own a monitor?

Volume is sooo key in my opinon. Force yourself to add another table every now and again. If you play sngs work out a clear definition of your opening-range around the table and autoclick like a maniac.

[dyehard]

Originally Posted by AdamS

my tournament notes on you (which unfortantely i cant reveal in detail) paint you as an above average player who requires caution on my part

interesting

Originally Posted by H3R34DALOOTTY

My notes say the same, something about playing KQ suited too..

Hang in there man, i'm running a losing race right now, but they say it'll turn around.

ty

Originally Posted by Vestvik7

Bruce do you own a monitor?

Volume is sooo key in my opinon. Force yourself to add another table every now and again. If you play sngs work out a clear definition of your opening-range around the table and autoclick like a maniac.

So I actually dug a little deeper into my data. My downswing started in November. It was about that time that I purchased a second monitor and increased my tables from 4 or 5 to 8 or 9. So my performance could be due to increased tables. Another thing I noticed is that in November I also started grinding on PokerStars.

Here are the likely reasons for my downswing.

a. too many tables at the same time
b. unable to multi on 2 sites
c. normal downswing
d. I'm not as good as I thought

Another possibility is that I am not playing in optinal condition. Since I have started taking poker seriously, about 10 months ago, I have probably averaged 6 hours of sleep a night...maybe less. Most of the time I feel fine. With the help of prescription Adderral, and an Amp drink, I usually feel alert and focused. But, I can't deny that playing after a full day and 4 hours sleep the night before is not the best practice for top players.

I think that my next session I will play only 45's on FTP, 5-6 tables. Going forward, I will choose certain days to play on PS and see how it goes.

[dyehard]

The misery continues.


Full Tilt Poker Game #18308069504: $24 + $2 Sit & Go (138584762), Table 5 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:13:23 ET - 2010/02/09
Seat 1: cantbeatrake (1,590)
Seat 2: DaddyFatStaxx (1,230)
Seat 3: greenway 777 (1,895)
Seat 4: wrsport1015 (1,455)
Seat 5: DanielBmac1 (1,110)
Seat 6: gol1974 (1,320)
Seat 7: dyehard (1,660)
Seat 8: Warp Pipe (1,460)
Seat 9: rerazor23 (1,780)
Warp Pipe posts the small blind of 20
rerazor23 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dyehard [Ah Ac]
cantbeatrake folds
DaddyFatStaxx has 15 seconds left to act
DaddyFatStaxx folds
greenway 777 folds
wrsport1015 folds
DanielBmac1 folds
gol1974 folds
dyehard raises to 120
Warp Pipe has 15 seconds left to act
Warp Pipe folds
rerazor23 raises to 700
dyehard has 15 seconds left to act
dyehard raises to 1,660, and is all in
rerazor23 calls 960
dyehard shows [Ah Ac]
rerazor23 shows [Jh Jd]
*** FLOP *** [Js 6h Ts]
*** TURN *** [Js 6h Ts] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [Js 6h Ts 7d] [5d]
dyehard shows a pair of Aces
rerazor23 shows three of a kind, Jacks
rerazor23 wins the pot (3,340) with three of a kind, Jacks
dyehard stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,340 | Rake 0
Board: [Js 6h Ts 7d 5d]
Seat 1: cantbeatrake didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: DaddyFatStaxx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: greenway 777 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: wrsport1015 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: DanielBmac1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: gol1974 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: dyehard (button) showed [Ah Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: Warp Pipe (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: rerazor23 (big blind) showed [Jh Jd] and won (3,340) with three of a kind, Jacks




Full Tilt Poker Game #18307971491: $24 + $2 Sit & Go (138582565), Table 4 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:07:25 ET - 2010/02/09
Seat 1: vh95032us (1,560)
Seat 2: bigdadguru (1,715)
Seat 3: newbie0511 (1,575)
Seat 4: bmxbills (1,590)
Seat 5: FirstTimePokerr (2,940)
Seat 6: Cameron V (1,455)
Seat 7: dyehard (1,520)
Seat 8: DrDave1377 (1,145)
dyehard posts the small blind of 20
DrDave1377 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dyehard [As 6h]
vh95032us folds
bigdadguru folds
newbie0511 has 15 seconds left to act
newbie0511 folds
bmxbills folds
FirstTimePokerr folds
Cameron V folds
dyehard raises to 120
DrDave1377 calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Ac 4d 2s]
dyehard has 15 seconds left to act
dyehard bets 160
DrDave1377 calls 160
*** TURN *** [Ac 4d 2s] [6c]
dyehard has 15 seconds left to act
dyehard bets 280
DrDave1377 has 15 seconds left to act
DrDave1377 raises to 865, and is all in
dyehard calls 585
DrDave1377 shows [Qh 5s]
dyehard shows [As 6h]
*** RIVER *** [Ac 4d 2s 6c] [3c]
DrDave1377 shows a straight, Six high
dyehard shows two pair, Aces and Sixes
DrDave1377 wins the pot (2,290) with a straight, Six high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,290 | Rake 0
Board: [Ac 4d 2s 6c 3c]
Seat 1: vh95032us didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: bigdadguru didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: newbie0511 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: bmxbills didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: FirstTimePokerr didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Cameron V (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: dyehard (small blind) showed [As 6h] and lost with two pair, Aces and Sixes
Seat 8: DrDave1377 (big blind) showed [Qh 5s] and won (2,290) with a straight, Six high

This isn't too terrible, but again I got my money in good.

Full Tilt Poker Game #18280433413: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (138345318), Table 1 - 120/240 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:25:54 ET - 2010/02/08
Seat 1: VDrive (1,460)
Seat 2: Aaladin1 (9,410)
Seat 3: PkrSkil (4,110)
Seat 4: hyperx0thea (2,820)
Seat 6: dyehard (3,935)
Seat 7: MoneyMano (2,680)
Seat 8: 06-73036542 (4,695)
hyperx0thea posts the small blind of 120
dyehard posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dyehard [7h 7c]
MoneyMano folds
06-73036542 folds
VDrive folds
Aaladin1 calls 240
PkrSkil folds
hyperx0thea folds
dyehard has 15 seconds left to act
dyehard raises to 3,935, and is all in
Aaladin1 calls 3,695
dyehard shows [7h 7c]
Aaladin1 shows [Ks Qs]
*** FLOP *** [9c 4d As]
*** TURN *** [9c 4d As] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [9c 4d As Ts] [5s]
dyehard shows a pair of Sevens
Aaladin1 shows a flush, Ace high
Aaladin1 wins the pot (7,990) with a flush, Ace high
dyehard stands up
VDrive stands up
Aaladin1 stands up
PkrSkil stands up
hyperx0thea stands up
MoneyMano stands up
06-73036542 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,990 | Rake 0
Board: [9c 4d As Ts 5s]
Seat 1: VDrive didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Aaladin1 showed [Ks Qs] and won (7,990) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: PkrSkil (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: hyperx0thea (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: dyehard (big blind) showed [7h 7c] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 7: MoneyMano didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: 06-73036542 didn't bet (folded)

[TYggShipIt]

We all got those great moments. Get the villian right where we want them, and still lose. Hope you get it out of you by posting them, thats what i try to do.

Been little over three weeks on full tilt of running horrible, just hands similar to yours that make me puke. Once it gets down to the 10-18 left, seems like any strong hand that i get busts me. I'll chip up fine taking blinds, stabbing here and there.. But when its the pre flop showdowns, forget about it, 2 outers 3 outers, runner runner, etc etc etc. Can easily create some frustration.

All i've been keeping in my head and saying over and over, is i had them exactly where i wanted them, got it in with the best, had them dominated, outplayed them, the rest is up to poker. Eventually it comes back, I hear people say it, I see peoples graphs that show it, positive thoughts and confidence although thin at times is always important. Whether its effecting timing of cbets, or just the poker luck factor idk, but it cant hurt..

I've also found being in a good mood when i sit down for a session effects it totally. Sometimes being agitated, and frustrated creates circumstances for such suckouts to occur. I'll spot the donks, and make sure that i have them completely dominated before i get mixing up with them, because i'm SURE they are calling me down with draws, mid pairs, over cards, any way they can suck out they will chase it for the BI reguardless. Waiting till later on in the game when they are trying to survive till final is a good time to take advantage of their lack of skill.

Also i'm not sure if you've changed up your shoving ranges, but the wider you ranges on steal attempts the more variance its going to create, picking different spots to steal, and targeting tighter players, rather then consistently button stealing can help with that as well.

All this coming from a guy whos down over 3k in 3 weeks, lol. I'm not running good either, but i'm trying to not let anything effect my game, and only increase my knowledge, timing, ranges, end game, and reviewing where i'm going wrong.

Hope something i said helps..

-Sean

[dyehard]

I'm going to step away from online poker for a while. I really think that I am still playing fairly decent but the beats that I have been taking, like the ones above, have beat me down mentally. What is worse than getting beat by a 2, 3, or 4 outer, is calling the beat after the cards are turned over and before the turn and river are dealt. I have to quit so that I don't become like shortmatt (although much better or late, Matt) and before I ruin the game for myself, or destroy any of the equipment around me. But honestly, I have tilted very little. Of course I get mad and curse at the screen like everyone else, but I haven't bought into $75 games to try to make my money back (well maybe twice), and I haven't ran to the $5/$10 NL games like I used to in my previous life.

The last 14 or 15 months have been great. I finally turned a profit over the course of a year. My game improved, and I met some great people at BBP. Hopefully some time away will do me some good and I can come back refreshed with a positive attitude.

My short term plans are to play in a couple of live events in a few weeks at Hammond, and Lawrenceburg. I feel pretty good about my live game. Two weeks ago I took 2nd in a charity tournament, and last week, I took 2nd at CSC's Saturday night tournament while adding $65 from the cash tables. I still have and active BAP and will leave it open until I return to the online scene.

Oh something else. Has anyone ever felt that certain events happen for a reason? Since getting serious with poker, my health has deteriorated (nothing bad, just out shape), I am sleep deprived, and I have no passion for my job. In these tough economic times, I, like many others, struggle to meet my financial obligations. Poker was there for me last year when I needed extra money for bills and Christmas. Now, there are no profits to take and my business has been stagnant with little growth this past year. Maybe Scott can relate a bit since he ran 2 businesses and played a lot. But, I wonder if my struggles are meant to pull me away from the game so that I can refocus and rededicate myself to my financial advisory business.

Sorry for the rant, but expressing how I feel helps me to cope with the depression and sense of bewilderment.

Until next time....I'm outtie like Gotti.