Why are there more bad beats online?

[Chipless Wonder]

Many online poker players are convinced that there are more bad beats online than live. This is true, and here are some of the reasons why.

1. You’ll see many more hands per hour. Instead of 25 hands per hour, you can easily average 50. Quite simply, this means that you’ll receive twice as many bad beats within a given time period.

2. You can multi-table. Nearly everyone I know who plays online plays more than one table at a time. This only compounds how many hands you see per hour. If you play two tables at once, you’ll be seeing FOUR TIMES as many hands. And guess what – you’ll receive four times as many bad beats within a given time period. And for those of you playing twelve tables at once - sorry, but you're going to receive 24 times as many bad beats as you would playing live.

3. It’s easier for your opponents to call with bad draws, weak hands, etc. The fact is that it’s much easier for people to make calls with weaker cards online. If they bust, they don’t have to drive home or wait a week to get into the next game.

I know that some of you feel these reasons just don’t add up. You don’t ever get three-outed twice in a row when you have a chip lead in a major live tournament. I disagree. This is poker, and it happens to us all – online and live. Check out this thread for a good example:

Three outed twice in a row – but NOT online!

Everyone will eventually get three outed twice in a row live, but it can never happen four times on the same day (like it would online) because it’s impossible to play 12 live tournaments or 12 tables of cash games in one day.

[Goldnutz69]

What about 3 outed 37 times in a row?

[D-Nut]

You too? LMAO!

[Chipless Wonder]

What about 3 outed 37 times in a row?

That's normal too Keith.

[SNutizzle]

How is that normal!?! See, I get the math of how many hands and tables we're playing, etc. But at any point, if I hear or make a statement about how "being 3 outed 37 times in a row is normal," then I know I'm playing in the wrong venue. Sorry, that is NOT normal!!!!!!!!!!

[Chipless Wonder]

We're kidding Stacey. No one gets 3-outed 37 times in a row except you. And that's because your account is rigged.

[SNutizzle]

We're kidding Stacey. No one gets 3-outed 37 times in a row except you. And that's because your account is rigged.

I realize you were kidding, but the sad thing is it DOES happen. I was just saying it's NOT normal! I never said MY account was rigged.

DNutty was the one with these outrageous claims. Sadly, it looks like Fellate Mignon is retired now as well........it wasn't the account, it was just the online world has it out for Dave!!

[Chipless Wonder]

the sad thing is it DOES happen

No chance. None. Zero. Zip.

To prove it to yourself, just take a screen shot of every bad beat you receive as it happens. And count them as they occur...

But as soon as a good beat takes place, or you have a hand that holds up, you have to restart your count. It will of course be impossible to get anywhere near 37. In fact, it will be real difficult to get past five.

[D-Nut]

Alright, alright......I guess I have some defending myself to do. But I'm a blabber mouth and I have to actually get some work done......

I think I'm a pretty reasonable dude....and I dont really think that someone cares enough about my piddly online account to "rig" it.....

But I have my reasons why online truly is different, and why it just isnt for me.

I'll share them here shortly

[Chipless Wonder]

If you're a good player, you’re much more likely to get your money in with the best hand. Sometimes you’re an 80% favorite and other times a 60% favorite. In average, maybe it’s safe to average this out and say that you usually get your money in as a 60% favorite. If this is true, then that means that it’s completely normal and natural for you to be ‘sucked out on’ 40% of the time. That’s almost half!

Let's expand on this with some basic linear math.

So can we all agree that according to the above, one could expect to receive at least a 'mildly bad beat' about 40% of the time? Good.

Let's move on...

What would the odds of receiving two consecutive 'mild beats'? The answer is 40% of 40%, or .40 x .40, or 0.40^2, which equals = 16%. So you have a 16% chance of receiving two mild bad beats in a row.

Three in a row would be .40^3, for only a 6% chance.

Four in a row = 2.6%

Five in a row = 1.0%

And 37 in a row = 0.00000000000018889%

Note: for 'true bad beats', such as one or three outers, your odds are much lower than the examples listed above.