Top Pair Top Kicker Against Another Big Stack

[Chipless Wonder]

Last night I was playing the $35,000 Guarantee on Full Tilt. We started with 559 players and we were down to 200 remaining. Average chip stack was 8,300 and I was doing in 45th place with 11,200. Only one guy at our table had me covered and he was in the big blind when I raised from the cutoff with:



I had raised to 720 and my opponent re-raised to 1,200. There were now 2,265 chips in the pot and it would cost me 480 to call. Should I have considered folding here?

I called, and the flop came:



There were now 2,745 chips in the pot and the big blind checked to me. I bet 2,200 and he raised to 4,400. Now what should I do? Does he have A-K, or does he just think I'm stealing from the cutoff? What would you do here?

[bursell]

I'm sure it's going to end up with him having a set of nines or aces or something, but I would push all in. You don't call a reraise with KQ, just to fold on the flop after you've made top pair.

[otbdave]

I do not think he has AK. If you are behind, you are behind to AA, in my opinion.

It seems like a lot of players love pulling this minraise thing preflop when they have AA, and his checkraise on the flop more or less confirms my belief.

Obviously you realize your decision to get all in is going to have to happen right now... 2 hands really make sense that you are behind, AK, and AA. You have 5 outs to AA and only 3 outs to AK, so you actually prefer to see AA which is the more probable hand here (to me).

Some reads here would really help, how tight is he preflop, have you ever seen him start minraising preflop and postflop before, if so, what did it mean? Have you ever seen him minraise preflop before, did he win the hand, did you see his cards?

You are far from committed but you must decide now. With no reads, I would probably call flop, with every intention to call all further bets and ultimately get all in unimproved.

Calling down here is better than shoving because if you do have him beat here, there is little chance he can improve to beat you. I feel you gain more equity by allowing him to bluff (if he is) then forcing him to fold. If he is already ahead, then it does not matter if you start calling down or push you are 20/80 either way and he will certainly get you in by the river. As long as you realize that once you call this flop bet, you can no longer fold. If he checks the turn again, I shove.


It really depends on how I have seen this guy play so far.

[D-Nut]

I guilty of this as well......I think the answer is that you have to proceed much the same way that you would if you call from a small blind position with odds with a very inferior hand.

I honestly think that the villian has aces, and he is trying everything in his power to get you to shove in more money here.

I had a hand very similar last night.....and I donked away my entire stack.

I dunno......I think I'm falling into this pit where I overemphasize being "priced in". I think I use the term too loosely......I take a hand like AJ or KQ, and think.....OK, I'm getting 2.5:1, well I have to call, right? When the real fact of the matter is that flopping top pair is likely to win a small pot or lose a big one. So yea, you are priced in to flop top pair, but are the odds enough to overcome the potential to play a big pot with the infinite uncertainty of whether our hand is good or not?

[otbdave]

Well you are even priced in through implied odds to try and beat his AA if you "know" that is what he has...

The fault in my logic is that I put him on AA when he minraises preflop, but now I want to get all in even though I am not beating AA.

A fold preflop may have been the best decision.

[Ivan_Drago45]

I agree with OTBDave in that I see a ton of people who minraise preflop with monster hands AA, KK, and rarely AK. I really don't see many people do it with QQ or less. However, I do play at the micro stakes and the play is just awful so I am pretty confident in the fact that nearly zero of the players I am facing would be able to pull off this sort of move without AA or KK or maybe AK. The situation may be different at the level you are playing.

Anyway, I have been in the scenario many times and my best results have come from making the call preflop and then dumping the hand to any sort of aggression after the flop. I would (I should say "should" here since I too am guilty of doing exactly what you did) fold to the check-minraise here for sure, call and see what happens if he bet out 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. Especially since this is the only guy at the table who has you covered.....this is something that I am slowly learning more about. I try to avoid any sort of squabble with the big stacks. Even if I get my money in as an 80/20 favorite he can still bust me 1 out of every 5 fights we get in to. This approach may leave me open to be bullied from time to time but tournaments are all about surviving long enough to get lucky and you don't survive too long if you keep tangling with the big guys.

In summary, I play this a little more cautious since you have plenty of chips and wait to go to war with something better than a pair of Kings.

[DevilFish73]

I both disagree and agree w/ Brian. I don't think he has a set (rainbow flop why not smooth call w/ a set here unless he thinks you are committed) of anything but I do agree that you called his reraise and then hit what has to be your best card so push... Maybe the call of the reraise was a mistake but now you are priced in... I do agree w/ the group that an AA could be lurking but again you made the move/mistake possibly on the preflop play and now to pay the piper.. I think what the guy has might be QQ, JJ or 1010..

[Tha Animal]

I fold... you are still near the average stack and there has to be a better spot. I am also very weary of the min-check-raise and any hand that you are behind with, you are WAY behind..

[wreaks]

I put him on AA also, but I might call this flop raise to see if you can hit your 2 pair and double up. If you miss, fold to a turn bet, or if the board pairs think about raising all in (if I want to be super aggressive).

[bursell]

I'm going to disagree with myself and agree with Dave. This is a classic way ahead or way behind situation, and calling down is the best option. You'll make more money when you're ahead and lose the same when you're behind. Also, you can never fold post-flop. If you're going to fold after making top pair on the flop you should have folded pre.