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This guy is a great player so he is most likely shoving ATC.
Please only reply if you answer all 3 of these questions.
1. Do you call AT here
2. What's your entire calling range
3. Why?
The payouts are
1st. 8.3k
2nd. 5.3k
3rd. 4k
4th. 3.1k
http://i1180.photobucket.com/albums/...ytoughspot.png
1st. 8.3k
2nd. 5.3k
3rd. 4k
4th. 3.1k
If u lose, u will win 3.1k
if u win, the best outcome is that you will win 8.3k around 25% of the time (1.3M vs 3.3k)
if u fold, the best outcome is that will win 5.3k
if u fold 10 times and get best outcome 10 times, u will get 5.3k*10=53k
If u call 10 times and win 70% of the time, u will win 3.1k*3+8.3k*2+5.3*5=52.4k
Just go through simple maths, u can see that even under best assumption, u still have to have more than 70% equity to be profitable here which means your calling range should be 99+.
If this guy is a great player, I would expect him to shove any two cards here, due to the payouts escalation and the chip stack differences. Our hand is ~ 63% against a random hand. So I think A-10 is a good call here.Quote:
Originally Posted by ThrillCory90
I don't know how to work the ICM math on this, but I would probably be calling with the top 15% of hands. This works out to 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+ and QJo.Quote:
2. What's your entire calling range
Because that is what I believe would be the most profitable play.Quote:
3. Why?
1) Fold AT
2) QQ+ AQs+
3) So if you do take the risk and win the hand you have basically tightened the handcuffs already around your wrists. Your 300k stack will be abused while the two shorties hang on for dear life. Only consolation for calling is if you lose the other two players will be dear friends for life.
Rofl. Well said. But Nick makes a great point since even if we double we still don't gain THAT much leverage.Quote:
Originally Posted by MI_turtle
1. I think I snap call as I believe he is shoving any 2 here trying to use and abuse all three of you guys.
2. I would call off very similar 77+, J10S+, A10o+
3. Again I think he is shoving any 2 cards there trying to abuse the 3 short stacks. I guess we could get unlucky and see AJ+ but I think if we run into a pocket pair 33-99 we smack the absolute top of his range here and you still have 2 overs and were off to the races. :rolleyes:
1. I am an Icm donk on fulltilt and it pays so top heavy for first so im snapping first pumping screaming hold the #$%$#%4 line
2. a8 a9 a10+ kq 66+
3. We play to win boysssssss
I really think he is literally shoving any two #$%ing cards here......I know if i had 8 2 in his spot im shoving..........
sooooo A8+ KQ 66+? :biglaugh:Quote:
Originally Posted by rounder63
i side with rounder on this one...but im not the type to get it in w TT v AK against the CL even if 3rd and 4th place are each down to 2 bb's....
1. Do you call AT here
No.
2. What's your entire calling range
1010+, AQs+, AK
3. Why?
I think you can make a pretty good argument for calling even tighter than this but I would make a stand with 1010+, AQs and AK. Doubling up is significant in the context of you locking up a top2 finish. Sure, you will be super abusable for the next 3-4 orbits as they desperately try to hang in there but you only have 4 more blinds than the guy in 3rd when you fold and the shorty can hurt you. Those extra chips would permit you to be the sheriff versus the other shorties, increasing your chances of getting top2.
This scenario happens all the time.....everyone disagrees with me but whatever..most of the time this what happens
Guy shoves everyhand u get short and he exploits you.......if hes tricky he starts walking the toher guys and shoves on you
what ends up happening is the short guys get super despret shove double up and then he has 1.8 million and u guys have 3-4 bigs with 0 CHANCE OF WINNING........
this gives us a chance of winning yes 330k isnt nothing compared to his mountain of chips but obv it increases are chances by winning by alot.......its a 3k more profit from 1st to 2nd....
WE play to winnnnn the gameeeeeee in a herb edwards voice........
If anyone saw my 40k guarntee win the other day.....ill make up the numbers but this is what happened
i had 1.6 million three handed they had 400k and 300k.........I shoved 25 hands in a row.(that number is not a lie)....they folded down to 200k and 150k......finally the 200k snapped off with jj.......unlucky for him i actually had aq and smasssssssssssheddddddddd an ace......and he was out........the previous hands i literally had 92 83 92 103 6 2 92 104......
Im arguing with thang as we speak about this and hes telling me the math about it but sometimes i feel theres more to tournament poker then math... what do i know im just a muppet ass clown monkey and maybe its my ego and pride getting in the way.........