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Thread: Terrible Play?

  1. #1

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    Terrible Play?

    Hollywood 10k GTD ($150 bi) 14 players left. Top 12 are paid.
    Blinds are 1500-3000 I think the ante is 300
    SB Hero - 110k
    BB Absent - 75k
    UTG - 60k

    It is right before the break and the BB had left early. Dead money. UTG is a young kid (headphones, sunglasses, etc) and he raises to 11k. Pretty large overall. Many have been all-in at this point because the blind structure accellerates dramatically at these stages. Considering, we are 2 away from the money, I saw this as a perfect time to test the medium stack and I decided to shove with any two. IMO, only premiums are calling here are large percentage of time. I look down at 69off, and shove and he snap calls. I hit a straight on the turn and he is baffled.

    Any thoughts?
    Villians calling range here?
    Should he shove pre with any two to avoid my move?

  2. #2
    Chipless Wonder's Avatar
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    Most good players will not raise fold with 20 BB, so that's a strong clue that he probably won't fold to your shove. UTG raises are usually less likely to be steal attempts than late position raises. Other than these two factors, I really like the details that you picked up on, and your bubble aggression.
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  3. #3
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    I agree with everything Scott said. However, given the UTG raise, and your stack size, I think this is an easy fold. Bubble aggression is where my game has improved the most lately and I feel like this is not the best spot to make a move. You want to be the aggressor when you see weakness (limpers), have fold equity, or when someone gets out of line (when someone you have position on is trying to steal blinds).
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    If the raise had bee from the CO/BTN this is a snap shove against a weak player, but scott nailed it head on.
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  5. #5

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    Good points. My bad read = bad beat and chip lead. Villian had AK off. I agree he is never folding here. We were 7 handed and one was absent so I took the UTG raise to be more of a move than that of a good hand. Skilled young players understand short handed play and I thought his range for raising was much larger with obv his calling all in range still premiums. If he looks down at TT-66, AQs, AJs, ATs, villians is likely making that same bet and folding to an all in here. I think my fold equity is slighly good enough. It might be an even EV play.

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