JJ Late

[DevilFish73]

What would you do here?

300 players left in the $50k

Average Stack- $6500

I have $4700

Player A has $12k

I'm in middle position w/ and bet 3x BB.. Blinds are 160

Late position guy min reraises

I think about pushing but decided to call..


Flop comes

It's your turn what do you do??

Do you push here, raise, check/fold, check call, check call all in???

Explain what you would do and why??

[D-Nut]

I dont really like this one........and we are out of position.

I'd most likely, with the given stacks and the current pot of 1680, check/fold.

I think the most profitable way to play this if you are intent on playing for your whole stack would be to check-raise all-in.

I just dont like this board, or anything about this hand.....I dont know anything about the villian, but if he has AA, we have outs, but a decided underdog, KK has us in the same predicament, QQ could very well be with the Q of spades, and that is bad shape. 10-10 is in rough shape.

The min-raise online has a tendency for being a big pair, and that board is a mess for that situation. We may have outs.....but if my read is on track, the villian has redraw and could have us dead by the river....

There has to be better spots than this.

[LAPPIN]

This one would require a proper detailed hand analysis which would include a measure of subjective probability based on limited information:

Firstly lets assume our opponent is not a total mongoloid and doesn't minraise 88 or less, AJ or less in this spot. Statistically speaking then his most likely holdings are QQ and 99, there being six combinations of each possible. Less likely but far from impossible are AA (3 combos) KK (3 Combos), AK (6 Combos), AQ (9 Combos), JJ (1 combo) and 1010 (3 combos).

Of all the 37 combos out there, how many are we beating?

10 - 99 which is among the least likely holdings, JJ which is the least likely statistically and AQ where the Q is not the Q of spades. The chances of our hand being good is already looking bleak. But if its no good, how bad is it or is it right on the cusp?

What are our odds versus each of the holdings?

vs AA: 36%
vs KK: 36%
vs 1010: 43%
vs AK: 47.5%
vs AQ (where Q not Q of spades): 44%
vs AQ (where Q is Q of Spades): 11%
vs JJ : 68%
vs QQ (where Q is not the Q of spades): 41%
vs QQ (where Q is the Q of spades): 7%
vs 99: 96%

To compile all our data:

AA: 3 x 36 = 108
KK: 3 x 36 = 108
1010: 3 x 43 = 129
AK: 6 x 47.5 = 285
AQ (where Q not Q of spades): 6 x 44 = 264
AQ (where Q is Q of Spades): 3 x 11 = 33
JJ : 1 x 68 = 68
QQ (where Q not Q of spades): 3 x 41 = 123
QQ (where Q is Q of spades): 3 x 7 = 21
99: 6 x 96 = 576

Totted up we get 1817 out 3700 (37 hand combos x 100)

I would at this point place a weight on the likelihood of each of the holdings given the preflop minraise.

My weighting expressed as a ratio would go as follows:

AA=4
AK=3
KK=3
AQ=2
QQ=2
JJ=1
1010=1
99=1

In other words, the probability of him having AA is 4 times greater than him having 99, etc. These are of course my own probabilities and not 100% accurate. However, they are not entirely arbitrary either as they are based on the limited information available.

Therefore:

AA: 3 x 36 = 4(108) - 432
KK: 3 x 36 = 3(108) - 324
1010: 3 x 43 = 1(129) - 129
AK: 6 x 47.5 = 3(285) - 855
AQ (where Q not Q of spades): 6 x 44 = 2(264) - 528
AQ (where Q is Q of Spades): 3 x 11 = 2(33) - 66
JJ : 1 x 68 = 1(68) - 68
QQ: 3 x 41 = 2(123) - 246
QQ: 3 x 7 = 2(21) - 42
99: 6 x 96 = 1(576) - 576

3869 out of 8200 or 47.2%

So our hand is not as bad as maybe first anticipated given the shape of the board. Particularly considering that we only need to be 40.5% given that there is about 1800 in the pot, we have 3900 back and our opponent has us covered. (3900 is 40.5% of 9600).

However, our problem here is not as simple as getting it in in a (albeit convoluted) coinflip scenario. Why? Because the hands we are beating (ie 99, the other JJ and are unlikely to lose their stack to us. By check raising, we may bet a half pot bet from these holdings as our opponent may feel obliged to continue bet. For our needs we will assume this continuation bet to be 1000.

With our weightings the value of these hands represents 644 out of 3869 (16.6% or one sixth approx). So in one sixth of the occasions, we will only get 1000 and not 3900 from our opponent. This represents a 74% loss of equity, making these scenarios approximately one quarter as valuable. We must therefore adjust their value within or stats.

26% of 644 = 168 approx or loss of 476

Therefore:

3869 - 476 = 3393
3393 out of 8200 or 41.4%

Remember: we need to be 40.5% to justify continuing with this hand.

In summation, a detailed analysis proves what we probably all already knew:
This is a bitch of a situation. It is marginal in the extreme. I believe the best course of action and the one I was leaning toward before the detailed analysis is to CHECK-RAISE ALL-IN or CHECK-CALL ALL-IN.

The analysis has shown that you do just about have the correct equity. Shoving would be the worst play as it would remove the check-raising value of the hands that you beat and thereby remove some of that equity. Incidentally, I believe there is some value in check-raising versus QQ where our opponent does not have the Q of spades. In this situation, our check raise might force a better hand to fold. Check calling a pot sized bet creates a more complex decision on the turn and it is in your interest to see both the turn and river with this type of holding.

NOTE: If you were early in a tourney with a healthy stack I would be disinclined to go for it here. A better spot could easily be found. However, you are below average chips right now and a double up now would see you healthy as you approach the bubble - a crucial period of the game to have a decent stack so that you can work it into an even greater one and a terrible time to have a short one where you cannot exert pressure on weaker, more timid opponents.

[wreaks]

Check-fold.

[Chipless Wonder]

Wow LAPPIN - that's the most analytial hand play justification I've ever read! Most impressive!

This is a bitch of a situation. It is marginal in the extreme.

I agree with this, but believe I would have to check-fold here. Although I'd LOVE to see some more cards, it seems to me like there's very little chance that we're ahead.

[stackinsideways]

Im prolly check-raising here...

Im hoping to see a free card and complete my ROYAL F'N FLUSH...but Im not gonna get away from this hand if he C-bets

you need a double up real bad if you want to FT this tourny...

and it would be real shocking to me if he was holding the Q of sp...

Im on super Tilt for the rest of this month atleast...so Im checking with the intention of going all in if he bets...

even if hes ahead how often does the best hand hold on FT anyways lol


ooooo and great work by David...

Id love to see you pull off all that math with the 15 seconds ft gives you tho lol

[DevilFish73]

Wow Lappin.. Sick break down.. John Madden doesn't have shi.t on you..lol.. Your conclusion is what I ended up doing.. I felt this was my only chance at making a run deep.... And outside of I felt I had outs.. Or more importantly I knew I was behind and needed them..lol


So I check he shoves and I push...

My hand


Bad guys hand




Turn is

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

river is

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[LAPPIN]

While my small brain could not do that calculation in 30 seconds, it is good to do these kinds of breakdowns once in a while because when next I am in that or a similar situation, I will have a greater sense of my options.