Flush Draw or Set?

[Chipless Wonder]

I'm in late position and make a normal raise holding:

One of the blinds calls and flop comes:



My opponent checks and I bet two thirds of the pot. He then raises all-in.

This is a hypothetical situation, but I see it all the time online. Generally speaking, here are the possibilities I am hoping for:

1. He has a flush draw and believes this is a good play.
2. He has top pair and thinks he must be ahead.
3. He has a middle pocket pair like 9-9 or 10-10 and hopes I missed the flop.

And here are the possibilities I am hoping he doesn't have:

4. He has a pair and a flush draw and this is actually a good play.
5. He has a set and this is a great play.

How do you deal with this situation? And what clues do you look for to try and make the best possible decision if you're holding the overpair in this case?

[PokerBroker]

I think I give the following percentages to your scenarios:

1) 20% flush draw
2) 40% top pair (especially if they have a big heart with it)
3) 20% middle pair (probably more likely in later stages where people are feeling shortstacked)
4) 10% pair and flush draw (more likely if they have top pair than bottom pair)
5) 10% set (more likely to happen on a non-drawing flop where there is less threat if you check behind)

This makes you a favorite about 80% of the time with an overpair...

[SparX]

I never fold in this specific situation

[wreaks]

Depends on the size of the all-in, but I'm calling this about 75-80% of the time, depending on the player who's making the move.

[Dr Fill Good]

I couldn't imagine folding here under any circumstance, you have to make the continuation bet. If they reraise all in huge you can pretty easily put them on weaker holdings. If they have a smallish stack and push all in it doesn't matter what they have. If they have a medium stack (4-7 times your raise just in general) is where you hit decision time. If its a tournament I don't see how you fold, its incredibly hard to put them on a set, especially when they push all in. As often as I've lost in similar situations, I don't think I could ever recommend a fold. But since its you... and you can't with with KK... you should have folded preflop.

[LAPPIN]

The only way I fold here is if I get distracted and time-out. If he has you beat then suck it up but you are very very likely to be good and after all, this is what you wanted to happen with your KK.

I would, however, say one thing in disagreement. I think it is a good play if your opponent holds Ax of hearts or J9, J10 and 109 of hearts because even though he may be statistically slightly behind, he doesn't know what you have and can make you fold alot of hands that currently beat him.