Tough Position on the River

[Chipless Wonder]

Pretend your name is Ryan and you're playing in a tournament. The blinds are 100/200 and you have ~ 7,000 chips. There eight players at your table when you raise to 700 from middle position with:



John calls from the button and Scott calls from the small blind. There are now 2,300 chips in the pot and the flop looks like this:



Scott leads out for 600 from first position, you call and John folds. There are now 3,500 chips in the pot. Here's the turn:



Scott bets 1,600 and you call again. There are now 6,700 chips in the pot, you have ~ 4,100 left and Scott has about the same. Here's the river:



Scott thinks for a long time, asks how much you have (4,100), ponders some more, then finally bets 2,200. Now there are 8,900 chips in the pot. You certainly can't raise here, but can you possibly fold with pot odds this strong?

What do you think Scott has here? And what would you do if you were in Ryan's shoes?

[wreaks]

Scott has a huge hand (flopped a set or AA/KK). Ryan should have folded after the turn.

[otbdave]

If i were Ryan I would either fold or raise the flop. Then I know exactly where I am. In this situation I can't possibly call the river with A high. No legitimate draws missed and there is absolutely no reason to put Scott on less than one pair. In fact, if I put Scott on air I would HAVE to raise before calling because I might fold out any pair less than JJ.

By just calling I have no info on Scott except that he called a preflop raise. I either put Scott on J8 or AQ.

[otbdave]

I think Scott checks a flopped set and does not cold call with AA/KK. He either has air or 2 pair.

[charlton49]

I saw too much of this hand to give an objective viewpoint, but as it is, I'd say that I may have put you on making a play on the flop and raised action at that point. If you come over the top then, and I put you on a legitimate hand, I'm done and I've lost a minimal investment. I think calling down to the river just leaves one too open for the aggressor to actually catch a hand.

[VTX rider]

I had 6 7 spades from the small blind in that hand. I put Scott on a pocket pair over 10's to KK's. I did not put him on AA. I paired the middle pair, when Scott led out with a bet on the flop, I folded. I felt my 6's were beat and got out. I think I may have affected Ryan's choice after the flop. If I wasn't behind him he could have raised Scott to see where he was at. With me still to act he had to wonder what I was going to do. I can't believe Ryan called Scott's bet after the turn. I would not have put anymore money in the pot with A K after the turn didn't get me anywhere. I also agree, I think Scott would have slow played AA or a set on the turn and river if he had them and let Ryan bet into him.

[JTDiggity]

Pot odds are definitely strong on the river, but you can still get away. One mistake that I stopped making was allowing one bad decision to lead into another. Ryan still has 20 big bets and should fold if he has the slightest feeling that he is beat. Going All-In won't work because Scott will almost certainly insta-call based on the pot odds and how much he has left. Rarely, and I emphasize, rarely, will Ace high be good against Scott in this situation. Just my opinion, that's the way I think I would have played it. People sometimes think that they have to keep going after they have put nearly half their stack in the middle, but sometimes you have to realize that you need to put the mistakes behind you and re-group. I have no idea how this hand played out, just saying what would be going through my mind in this scenario.

[otbdave]

Calling anywhere with AK is wrong. If you feel your opponent weak on the flop you raise, and if Scott does anything besides fold you KNOW you need help. You lose minimal chips and feel comfortable with your decision. Just folding is another great option. Calling down makes the tough situation here on the river in which you just have to fold. If AK ends up winning the pot here it is really just a lucky play, not a good play.

[TurboGP]

I say Scott had paired As or was holding JJ. I would have stopped calling real fast.

[otbdave]

I know Scott is tight I played with him at the Lima but I don't understand why everyone is putting him on JJ+ even AA when there is someone else raising and a call from the button. Why in the world would he want to play a big hand with no idea where he is at out of position?