Where are my sets?

[ozzy]

So Im bored while grinding out a horrible run... Even dropped stakes...

Just got hem and pt3 again.

Out of 272 pairs 77-22 - flopped sets 6% of the time (11.75% is the probablity)

Out of 610 aa-22 - flopped sets 7.5% of the time.

This is my latest huge downswing too......... sigh at life.

Any suggestions. I honestly have managed tilt better this time, but this shit gets old... (so many deep runs in mtts only to get 20%ed or worse...... sigh sigh sigh)

[DevilFish73]

Come on ladies and gents give the guy some advice.. LAPPIN you are a sick beast lend a hand here..


Hope it turns around for ya Ozzy..

[cardsfan04]

Seems like normal variance to me.

[ozzy]

Seems like normal variance to me.

Okay this is good to hear. Thats what I thought but its refreshing to be reassured thats it.

I have played a little worse at times as well. So just drop/mix in lower stakes and grind it out?

[dhutt24]

are you sure you have it filtered out to show only pocket pairs that have gone to the flop... youve had pairs alot but im sure lots of those times youve raised and taken the blinds... think about that

[cardsfan04]

Okay this is good to hear. Thats what I thought but its refreshing to be reassured thats it.

I have played a little worse at times as well. So just drop/mix in lower stakes and grind it out?

I don't konw what your BR is, but if you can stay at the same level w/o your RoR going up much, there is no need to drop down just cuz of a downswing. It's very common to play worse during downswings, which in turn, extends/worsens the effects that they have.

If you still are comfortably rolled, I'd stay at the same limit if you have had success beating it to this point. If not, move down and try to work back up to it. A common misconception that people have is that you should move down during downswings "to minimize damage". The problem with that logic is that you have no way of knowing or predicting when or how long you will run bad. There is no cycle of run good for awhile, run bad for awhile or anything like that. It may seem that way, but every hand during a downswing is an independent even that is not at all affected by some "cycle" of variance. You could run sick hot for 6 months, run bad for a day, then run sick hot for 6 more months. Or, you could run moderately hot for awhile and then really bad for awhile. Or, any possible combination that you can come up with of running hot/cold.

Also, I'm not overly familiar w/ filtering situations in HEM (like PPs v sets), but I was wondering aobut not seeing flops w/ your PPs affecting the % too. Even if that's only for PPs that see flops, it doesn't mean a ton IMO. It was only a few hundred times IIRC, so a relatively small sample.

/ramble

[ozzy]

This includes pp I folded preflop. So played or not only flopping set 6-7% of the time. Im trying to figure out when I see the flop what it actually is, Im sure thats even better.

Ive actually been getting more pp than normal too.

No Im not dropping stakes for br reasons although a few more horrible days and I will. Im just dropping down to regain confidence and try to get back to playing better. I like mixing it up as much as possible when I run bad, not sure why, but I think it helps.

If I running bad in say 9mans (which I cant win one for the life of me right now, went 13 straight shoves coinflip or better and lost everyone on the bubble) Ill play strictly 10 90mans at a time. I think it helps switching games to get back to playing normal as much as possible. idk....................... hopefully it ends soon.

And yeah I seem to run hot real quick, run bad real quick, back and forth. Oh well, learning to deal with tilt. And I know its a tiny sample but it seems devastating. Thanks for the responses!