QQ in the cut-off

[wreaks]

This hand happened last night. I want to get your opinions on it:

7-8 handed, blinds 10/20. UTG+1, sitting with about 2k, raises to 70. I don't have a ton of information about this player, I've played with him a few times. He's not a great player but not someone that would get too crazy with anything. It folds around to me, and I have QQ. I raise to 220, sitting with about 1800. It folds around to the villain, who calls.

The flop is 578 rainbow. Villain checks, I bet 550. Villain thinks for a bit and calls. Turn is a Ko, completing the board rainbow. Villain checks, I check (I was watching him when the K came down, and I swear he blinked about 10 times in 2 seconds). River is a blank (low card, 2 maybe). Villain insta-shoves, putting me all-in. I think for 10 seconds or so, complaining out loud that he called me with AK on the flop, and end up folding.

What do you think, good fold? What would you put him on?

[Chipless Wonder]

I think you played every street beautifully, and probably read your opponent right also.

Even if we're not right, we really do have to fold to his river shove. We still have over fifty (50) big blinds left, so there's plenty of time to accumulate chips.

[ohpokergal]

Turn is a Ko, completing the board rainbow. Villain checks, I check (I was watching him when the K came down, and I swear he blinked about 10 times in 2 seconds).

Trust your read, Derek. Those eyeblinks shout out TELL to me... he LOVED that King!

It's such a donkey move to call the 550 on the flop, unless he put you on the same hand, AK.

I hope that I would show that same discipline as you did though, to fold there.... Several of the regular local villains - oops, I mean opponents (ie. George, Chuck, Charlton) - will MAKE that move on me because they KNOW I'm stupid enough to call!

My only suggestion is that I might have pushed ON the flop. Maybe he folds ...

[D-Nut]

Maybe I give guys too much credit, but for this guy to call a pot overbet trying to spike an ace or king seems like a

If I were to guess......he had to flop a set didnt he? Flat call of more than the pot has to be there already you would think......but if the guy really did catch up, then congrats to him and hopefully you get your chips back later in the game.

I'm confused by the shove on the end, because it would have been possible for the smooth call on the flop to be a "scared" pair of 9's or 10's......with a player that didnt know how to release them.

His river bet certainly doesnt scream value bet to me, but I cant for the life of me figure out what or why he would bluff with.

[otbdave]

You can't be winning with QQ with all the info you got (by this I mostly mean betting patterns, I will ignore the tell). Fold.

Who was it, might I ask?

[otbdave]

He will show up 100% of the time with AA, KK, or a set, except extreme deviant players.

[niner1984]

He will show up 100% of the time with AA, KK, or a set, except extreme deviant players.

i agree that you are probably beat i just do not see the betting pattern telling me kk or aa i would say ak kq extreme or a crazy bluff

[wreaks]

I'm pretty sure his name is Dan. He's the big dude with the glasses.

edit: The way he played it, I honestly don't think he's good enough to show up with AA or KK on this hand. It takes a certain player to be patient enough to check call the flop and check the turn with those hands, and I don't think he's one of them.

Congrats on your finish Dave.

[otbdave]

I think that most players that play that kinda field are not going to check call 550 with overs on the flop either.

I agree the big pairs (KK and AA) are unlikely, but given the situation I feel they show up a lot more. Everyone definately was clamping down on the tightness wednesday night.

Anyway, still definately can't call. Thanks Derek, and that side bet we had was won before it even began.

[wreaks]

I guess I just don't see with a set or one of those big pairs why he wouldn't check raise such a low flop. He has to put me on a big pair right, with the reraise of a raise from early position? He probably could have stacked me there. Oh well. In the end I'm almost positive it was a good fold. I swear that K hit him though, so if not AK the only thing that makes sense with the betting pattern is pocket KK. Since he put me on a big hand, he might have been worried about the K giving ME a set, so I don't see an insta-shove on the river. I think it has to be AK or KK.

edit: Yeah I liked that side bet. Did you hear about the hand at the cash game between Jake and I after?