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What would be considered a good sample size to determine a somewhat accurate live cash game hourly rate. The hours put in would have to be at the same limit (ex: .50/1.00, $1/$3, $2/$5), the same location (dave's, The Gemini, a casino), and obv if it is self deal you would probably need a larger sample since you would be seeing less hands than if you had a dealer. Just wanted to get some input on this topic since it isnt discussed very often. let me know what ya think
You will hear varied opinions on this...
In order to have data that means anything, I would say you need a sample of at least 10,000 hands. This is a LOW requirement, you are going to hear a lot of people say you need way more than this.
So, if we want to throw some random estimates out there, I would say you see about 25 hands / hr at Gemini (might be a little low). Therefore a good sample would consist of 400 hours of play, or approximately 50 sessions.
As far as what is a good winrate? I am winning 7.81BB / 100 hands over 25,000 hands at 100nl online. This is 5.71BB per hour, with a "real" winrate of 20.42BB/HR. Obviously I choose to select the game I am excelling at as my 200nl stats are not so fun.
Anyway, I would consider 7.81BB/100 to be beating the game pretty badly. Online it is hard to attain very big winrates (in my opinion). In a live game, you would hope to beat the game harder. If you could win 16BB / 100 hands at Gemini (so twice my online winrate) you would be winning approximately 4BB / hr which at a 300nl game equates to $12/hr. You might make more at a real job but not too bad for sitting around playing poker. However, you then must consider you are paying approximately $2 per hour in tokes and $2 per hour on the door fee. This brings your winrate down to $8 per hour. So, unless you absolutely DESTROY the game, you won't really make a living off of it.
Quick side note: Although players deal in my game I don't think it slows down the game much. Many more players going to the flop at Gemini I think actually makes their game slower than mine. I estimate their game at 20-25/hr while I estimate mine at 25-30/hr. Just my opinion.
ive played roughly 5,625 (225hours) hands winning about 14.5bb per hour ($43/hr) ....this is not including any tokes or the use fee which i subtract from anything i make at the end of the night before i record my profit for the session...I knew i had played alot but it still didnt feel quite enough to get an accurate hourly rate.
I would say you are still a little on the short end of a good sample. It is clear your results should be positive, but I would say (just random guess) that your true winrate could be as much as 6BB per hour different from your sample so far. So you should be somewhere in the 8.5-20.5BB / hr winrate. Which is extremely high.