I think he has a straight pretty often here, but KQ just about never. The rest of the time I guess he has a set of 9s or 2s or of course a bluff. Still, I really think he has 87/Q8 at least 3 times as often as he has a bluff, once he makes it 30k.
Will your play work? Maybe, solely on the basis that few players at any level would 5-bet the river all-in for 500BBs with less than the nuts. Ever. He doesn't know you at all, really, based on the history you gave, so he will probably not assume you are "that crazy." As others have noted, that is the only thing going for you (it's pretty strong, admittedly), since you should never show up with any straight, let alone the nuts, after taking this line (checking it back twice in a reraised pot). Which piece of logic will triumph, assuming he has a hand? I would guess that "fds has fps way more often than he has the nuts," will win out over "nobody 5-bets the river in this hand w/o KQ".
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