Stumped blind versus blind

[Chipless Wonder]

Last night's $32K Guarantee on Full Tilt. 1,568 players, ~ 90 remaining. Binds/antes are 1,000/2,000/300 and I am in the small blind with ~ 90,000 chips. My opponent in the big blind has ~ 80,000 chips.

It folds around to me in the small blind. I have raised and the big blind folded the last few times we were head to head. This time I decided to limp with:



He checked, and there were 6,700 chips in the pot when the flop came:



I figured I was WAY ahead on this flop, but I was determined to keep the pot small. So I checked, he bet 5,000 and I called. There were now 16,700 chips in the pot and the turn came:



I checked again, he bet 10,000 and I called. There were now 36,700 chips in the pot and the river came:



I couldn't think of any hand he could have here that I was behind, except possibly a flopped set of fours. My best guess was that he had flopped top pair and didn't think I had anything at all. So I decided to check, and consider calling if he bet, in an attempt to not get all-in in this situation. I checked and he bet 15,000 chips. This sure looked like a value bet to me, so now I didn't like the situation at all.

What do you put the big blind on in this hand? What would you do f you were me in this spot? And how should I have played differently to avoid this tough river decision? I know, I know - if I would have check-raised the flop I would know exactly where I was in the hand by now...

[erminator06]

I would have probably check called the flop and cehck raised the turn....you said that you put him on top pair but you didn't think he thought you had anything...problem with this is that blind vs blind he'd probably raise preflop with K10 or higher so if you're correct that means he could have K9-K2 so you are beating K9, K8, and K6 and are those hands he is likely to value bet with on the river? I'd says he is likely to have maybe turned or rivered twopair...or like u said he could have a flopped set of 4's... now he could just be stupid and be on a total bluff and decided to fire every step of the way but that is unlikely....i dont know if im disciplined enough to fold for 15k...i probably just angrily call and wonder why i didn't raise the turn

[erminator06]

or he could be like me and decide to double barrell when he has a gut shot and gets there on the river with 3-6

[davgolf3333]

Well i doubt he has the king cause i dont know why he would limp w/ it then bet the pot on the flop...so that looks like a bluff to see where he is at. Then he bets 2/3 of the pot - i think a reraise there to see where u are... Then his last bet of not even 1/2 the pot looks like he made his hand and wants value. So my guess is a set but more likely some gay straight...
Have to make the crying call though...
But im a donkey maybe he had u the whole way

[erminator06]

to be honest i think preflop this is a muck...later in tournaments like that one i'm normally raising or mucking my small blind, and if he had been giving you his big blind the past few times uncontested i think a muck is good here so that he doesn't think you are always stealing...but K2 off is a hand that just doesn't play well post flop in that position especially with someone who can cripple you

[rpavlov]

In reference to the post just before mine: preflop, the SB has to call 1,000 into a pot which has over 5,000 in it (if the table is at least 7-handed), and his hand is better than an average one. How could a fold preflop ever be correct? I suppose if the BB ALWAYS raises when you limp, and your stack is really short (i.e. the 1K you save by folding is a huge percentage of your stack), you could make a case for a fold, but with 45 big blinds to start the hand, it's not exactly a huge risk.

In the real hand, I would've raised the flop, but as played I insta-call the river. I would never consider folding unless the opponent has just been extremely predictable and tight. Your hand is ludicrously underrepped, so he could easily have a good K or a lower 2 pair. You only have to be right like 28% of the time based on pure pot odds to make this call (since losing the hand won't put you in horrible shape, I'm not bothering with tournament EV vs. usual EV considerations), and unless he's the tightest player ever I'm sure you're good that often. If you wanted to have a better idea where you're at, you would've needed to raise somewhere... as played, you took a line to extract maximum value from weaker hands and induce bluffs, and you've done that. So now I think you have to call.

[rpavlov]

And you asked how to avoid such a hard decision on the river... is this really such a bad spot that you've ended up in? You have an opponent putting lots of money into the pot (but not enough to cripple you!), who can't possibly know the true strength of your hand (therefore he's probably ahead a much smaller amount of the time than he thinks he is), and you get to close the action. This doesn't seem so bad to me. I'm not saying that the hand was played perfectly (though against some villains, it may have been!), but I'm not sure that the fact that you have to call a bet on the river without knowing exactly where you're at means that you made some poor decision that must be avoided. Just my 2 cents.

[LAPPIN]

Always tricky to analyse B vs B situations (particularly limped ones) as you are dealing with an ATC situation for both players.

As played, you have to call the river. If he has gone to value town with a better kings-up, a set (unlikely but both 22 and 44 definite possibilities) or A3, then you gotta pay the piper and be glad you didn't raise on any street and inflate the pot (as you mentioned was important to you out of position so deep-stacked). It is, however, as likely that an opponent would value bet a worse two pair or even a hand like KJ (less likely as a probable preflop raise), K10 or K9 as your play looks like you might have a hand like A4, Q4, 56 or 35 and feel obligated to call. (Interestingly, he also could be putting you on 35 and be bluffing with air to get you off that hand.)

I would raise any King blind v blind here preflop (you mentioned he had put up no resistance previously so why not pound him???? If he comes back over the top then K2 is an easy fold. I would be more inclined to limp with my 4-5s, 7-8s and J-9s here as I would call a raise from him - whereas with K2 if I limp and he raises I muck.). I completely agree with your check-call approach on the flop and turn. I would however opt for the lead-out on the river. That card is scary enough on an otherwise uncoordinated board as 35 is a consistent holding for you to represent. In this situation, I assume you are willing to call the 15K on the river if you are beat so why not lead out for that sum, thus avoiding the negative freeroll. If he raises, you can easily laydown in the knowledge that he must have the goods or an enormous set of balls to try to get freaky/reckless given the play.

If the latter is the case, then tip your cap to him.

[erminator06]

so what did he have scott?

[Chipless Wonder]

I called, but I definitely didn't feel good about it. He showed and had hit his gut shot straight on the river. His flop and turn bets must have meant that I had effectively convinced him I had nothing at all. I was very surprised to see that he had bet two streets with ace high and a weak draw.

Excellent posts in this thread. I really like seeing the thought process for reasoning through hands like these.