Strategy: Betting the River

[wreaks]

One of the ways cash game players cost themselves the most money (either by not betting at all or not betting the right amount) is on the river. Most people will bet with what is most obviously the best hand (hit the draw they were chasing, improved to a boat/quads, etc), and check when they're not sure (have top pair-weak kicker, bottom two pair, low end of a four card straight, etc).

This is an area that all players can improve upon, and an area that the best cash players excel at. I think the key is putting your opponent on a range of hands, which some players aren't as good at. What do you usually do at the river when you're not sure? What do you think you can do to get better at it?

I will say that I think it is easier to be good at this playing live than online, when you can pick up on a tell that might help your decision. Here's an example:

1/3 game, 2 late position limps to you in the SB, and you raise to 16 with 10-10. You get 1 caller; you both have ~500. Flop is:

986 rainbow. You make a continuation bet of 25 and get called. Turn is:

suited K, making a 4 flush possible.

You bet 45, opponent calls. River is:

suited 6, making a flush possible.

With the way the hand played out, what might your opponent have? Would you bet the river? If so, how much?

With a good discussion here, I think everyone will benefit. Let's get a good one going!

[Blue_O_Rock]

I think the villan's most likely hand here is 97s or maybe 87s but not the suit that would give him the flush. T7 and 67 which would have you beat are a bit less likely since you have two of the tens, and because there was another 6 that came on the river. If he had 99, 88 or 66 and was slowplaying any type of set, then with the straight and flush draws on the turn he would have had to have raised just in case you were betting on the come. Same goes if he had a hand like 89. If the Villan was playing JJ or QQ tricky by limping preflop, he would have been hard pressed to call again once the K came out since you had been betting the whole way. Aces are also a possibility, but unlikely. I know some people that like to limp with them in the early positions, but limping late is usually a very bad idea.

I think I am about 70% sure I still have the best hand here. I would probably bet about $50-60. I pray that the villan just fold, but with my luck the villan will call and show something stupid like K7 or a runner runner flush. I feel that I probably have to make this bet anyway, since I am out of position, and if I check and the villan bets half the pot on the river, I have a really tough decision and probably have to fold. If I make the blocking bet and the villian comes up over the top, then its a pretty easy fold.

-Mike

[ThePenguin22]

I hope he has 78, 67, 97 or A,678or9 and I make a bet of say about $70. Im not really worried about the flush and believe Im still ahead, however betting about $70 Im showing real strength still and I fold immidiatly to any raise. Maybee the $70 is too much for him to call with one of the hands above and Im pricing him a little high for the value bet but I feel that bet will also stop him from trying to bluff me and go over the top. If he folds his hand here Im not too unhappy to just pick up the pot, if he calls with the worst hand I dont think its possible to get more out of the hand.

[PokerBroker]

You are a fairly decent favorite in this hand, HOWEVER... You really have to consider your opponent's possible holdings and what he could potentially call a river bet with...

There is $178 in the pot...

OPPONENT'S RANGE OF HANDS (red I exclude, blue are possibilities)

JJ or better, AX, KQ: probably raises in LP rather than limps
KX: may limp, call; but probably folds when they whiff the flop
K9, K8, K7: may limp, call; could smooth call flop
J9: may limp, call; could smooth call flop
T9: may limp, call; I probably rule out given the two tens in my hand
98: may limp, call; could smooth call flop; but probably raises turn when K and flush draw hits
87, 76, 65: may limp, call; could smooth call w/ one pair and straight draw
99, 88, 77, 66: may limp, call; could smooth call flop but probably raise turn when K and flush draw hits

I have really limited my opponent to K9, K8, K7, J9, 87, 76, and 65... Of these seven hands I am beat by five not including the possible straight, flush, and boat on the board... I am currently beating J9, 87...

The problem here is that the hands I can beat are very rarely going to give me much action if I bet the river here, only a small value bet is going to get called...

On the other hand, only a hand that has me beat here can give me action after the river...

You may feel like I miss a bet here Derek but I really feel like a bet in this example is -EV... If I'm ahead I don't get a call, if I'm behind I can't bet my oppenent out...

I say check, but don't hesitate to snap call if you really feel you have him beat.

Maybe a different example would be better?

[wreaks]

This specific example was just made up as kind of a fencer. After I made it, I don't know if I'd throw out a river bet either. My range is a little different than yours Ryan, but the analysis is similar. Don't forget that he only called the turn bet too. I think if the villain in this example hit two pair on the flop or turn, he'd have to raise our turn bet with all the draws out there.

The example was just something to get you thinking though. Lots of other factors can come into it.

How often do you try and value-bet the river, when you're pretty sure you have the best hand but it's only top pair?

[erminator06]

I would probably never bet the river here unless this person just liked to play sheriff.....What hand that you are beating are you going to get a call from on the river?