Straight flush draw facing all-in bet

[Chipless Wonder]

Dave and I disagree on how I should have played this hand earlier today at the Orleans $105 tournament. We have a wager on the consensus of this forum, so please be sure to cast your vote honestly, even if you don't feel like posting your thoughts.

Blinds/antes were 200/400/25, and I had ~ 6,700 chips. Two limpers came in, plus the small blind, and then I checked my option from the big blind with:



There were 1,850 chips in the pot when the flop came:



The small blind immediately pushed all in for 3,000 chips, so there were now 4,850 chips in the pot and I had a little over 6,000 remaining. My read on this opponent was that he had a weak offsuit ace, since this was how he had acted whenever he connected with an ace all night long. If my read was right, I should have ~ 12 outs and be in a race. This race should cost me 3,000 chips to win a pot of 7,850 if I call and everyone else folds.

Folding leaves me 6,300 chips. Calling leaves me 3,300 chips.

So what would you do in my spot? Please be honest so Dave can get me paid up.

[DevilFish73]

No calling here it is either a push or a fold.. To be honest, online this is an easy push so why not play the same live.. I also like making this play with the blinds starting to creep up.. The interesting thing is the fact that if you lose this hand you have about half your chips and the next hand that you will probably play will be for all of them due to the level of the blinds, so you will either make them up or get K.O.

[TurboGP]

Fold. But what do I know? I figure the guy has diamond paint cards.

[Blue_O_Rock]

If you are going to play this hand, I would push to maximize the chance of the other two folding. This one is pretty close. Paying 3000 to win 4850 you are getting a little better than 3:2 odds. So if you think you are better than %40 then it should be the right move. If you had 12 outs you would be at about %47. But if he has just one diamond you are down to %42 and if he might be pushing with a flush draw, you are crushed. So it is a bit closer than it looks. I think I would be reluctant to to get it in here with such a slight mathematical edge unless I felt that the other players were better than me. But I think you are a really good player and that it is better eV to just look to pick up the blinds uncontested at this point in the tournament.

-Mike

[ohpokergal]

I agree with Ben. You can't call. It's push or fold. You have a couple of players still to act.

Even with 12 outs, you've most likely got a 5 high flush. In order to win, you realistically have to hit a 3, while no other diamond falls - so 4 outs. The small blind has an Ace, and is trying to protect his hand. If you call, then the two players behind you are getting much better odds to call with their HIGHER flush draw.

4 outs - instead of 12 - dramatically reduces your "odds".

If you really want to go for the Straight Flush - PUSH - to eliminate other draws.

My best advice, however, would be to fold. Hang onto your $6k, and go on to WIN the tournament by making better plays with better odds.

[niner1984]

well my opinion is that if the person who pushed allin does have a weak ace you should 100 percent move in . the problem as i see it i can see the guy moving in with two big diamonds in that case you are not racing and are dominated especially if he has the 9 of diamonds. Without seeing the cards i would not trust a read here enough and i would fold and find a better spot.

[erminator06]

im never folding a straight flush draw with like a 16bb stack....you'll never win a tournament if you do

[otbdave]

I think if you push the other 2 players will fold about 90% of the time. When they don't fold, they have you crushed. I think you will have your 12 outs against the open shover about 80% of the time, because it is certainly possible that he is shoving a flush draw. In fact, I would say there is less than an 80% chance you have 12 outs except for the fact that I am accepting your read.

I am gonna vote on what "I woud do" and I wold not reallythink too hard about it and shove all in.

What you "should do"? I am actully not sure. It depends on some estimates of the other players' hands and I think reasonable estimates miiiight tell you to fold.

The important thing here is like Mike Adams said, if you feel you are better than the average field remaining you should not be happy with such a marginal situation.

In fact, I think I won't vote at all cause I am just not sure. Reading the title of the post I almost just clicked "raise" without even bothering to read anything because that is the correct move 95% of the time... It is nice to have fold equity though and you have none by calling a player already all in.

[cusecrusher]

If you truly believe he had just a weak Ace I think you have to shove getting
2:1 on your money at almost even money. However, as George said I wouldn't be totally convinced of that as he could easily have 2 high diamonds IMO. I'd go with my read but if your confident its a weak Ace I would go ahead and shove all-in.

[Kojangie]

Raise raise raise.