Bad Shove with AT?

**dyehard** · 05-13-2009 12:58 AM

8 left at the final table of $26 45.

Full Tilt Poker Game #12189419136: $24 + $2 Sit & Go (91127370), Table 2 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:48:14 ET - 2009/05/13
Seat 1: inex00rable (11,220)
Seat 2: Chewbacca Nuts (5,836)
Seat 3: jeanddjohnson (6,235)
Seat 4: GaCoast (6,989)
Seat 5: tish818 (11,970)
Seat 7: adamhearts (6,870)
Seat 8: OOONETIME (3,460)
Seat 9: LckdnLoaded (14,920)
inex00rable posts the small blind of 200
Chewbacca Nuts posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chewbacca Nuts [As Tc]
jeanddjohnson folds
GaCoast folds
tish818 folds
adamhearts folds
OOONETIME folds
LckdnLoaded folds
inex00rable raises to 1,200
Chewbacca Nuts raises to 5,836, and is all in
inex00rable calls 4,636
Chewbacca Nuts shows [As Tc]
inex00rable shows [Ah Kc]
*** FLOP *** [Jc 8s Js]
*** TURN *** [Jc 8s Js] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [Jc 8s Js Ac] [Kh]
Chewbacca Nuts shows two pair, Aces and Jacks
inex00rable shows two pair, Aces and Kings
inex00rable wins the pot (11,672) with two pair, Aces and Kings
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 11,672 | Rake 0
Board: [Jc 8s Js Ac Kh]
Seat 1: inex00rable (small blind) showed [Ah Kc] and won (11,672) with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 2: Chewbacca Nuts (big blind) showed [As Tc] and lost with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 3: jeanddjohnson didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: GaCoast didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: tish818 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: adamhearts didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: OOONETIME didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: LckdnLoaded (button) didn't bet (folded)

**Dr Fill Good** · 05-13-2009 02:00 AM

No, its a great shove IMO. Note that the guy raises strong from late position and fold next time.

**J4bberW0cky** · 05-13-2009 11:14 AM

I don't think you can fold AT when the sb open raises your bb and you've got a little fold equity and a need to accumulate. He happened to have a strong hand that time but I think you'd do well to push it just about every time here with these stacks. It's not like anyone can take advantage of your strategy either- AT is a good hand in this spot.

**dyehard** · 05-13-2009 11:35 AM

A couple things I didnt like about my move.

1. I hate busting out on the bubble. I probably could have folded my way to at least a 6th place cash. Since this is an upper level buy in for me, any cash is great.

2. When shoving, I want to be the first into the pot unless I have a monster hand.

3. I wasn't in shove/fold territory. With 14.5 BB, I had plenty of time. If I fold pre, I still had enough chips to raise 2.5bb on future hands which I would have been first to enter the pot.

Second guessing is a bitch.

**otbdave** · 05-13-2009 02:09 PM

1. All this will do is cause you to continuously play -EV. You need to be playing smaller buy-in tournaments if this is the case (plus you get the added bonus of an easier field)

2. You want fold equity, which is kind of what you are saying. You definitely had some here.

3. You are in shove/fold territory when the SB raises you since you then only have 3-4x pot.

Without any STRONG statistical reads on SB shove is the right move. Its good that you didn't second guess yourself in to a less valuable play.

**pegboy1** · 05-13-2009 02:22 PM

You guys are all much better than me. So I ask.....why do you think the shove is a +ev , and the correct move. Seems many times I do exactly that, and seem to be shoving against a bigger hand, or at least a legit coin flip. Is he not better waiting for a better spot to shove? Not challenging the advice at all, but was wondering about the math. Is it worth the shove at that point even if he is a small favorite? Hes got "some" time before he gets desperate imo. Again, not challenging, just trying to learn.

**otbdave** · 05-13-2009 02:31 PM

There are people in this forum that are way better than me at these but here is my donk reasoning...

At the $26 45 man level, most players realize that any ace, and even any king is a favorite against one other random hand. Since it has folded around to the SB, any A and any K is well ahead of the range of the BB. In fact, I think I read somewhere, that a shove would be +EV with any A blind v blind up to over 20 something big blinds stack sizes.

The point is, if the SB is playing optimally and even reasonably aggressively, he raising range is, on average, almost certainly worse than AT. Since you are ahead of his assumed range, and you have an opportunity to be 100% to win 1200 a decent portion of the time, the best play is to shove. It is very unlikely that you run in to one of only 8 hands you are worried about. (AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ,AJ)

Finally, I think the aggressive image you create by pushing creates some 'fear equity' in that your blinds may be stolen slightly less.

**pegboy1** · 05-13-2009 03:12 PM

went back and looked at my hand history for situations I had A10 in big blind, facing a steal in the BB, blinds 100/200 and greater, and action was a 3 bet raise by me(couldnt find how to pull up raise jams) heres what I found. Only a few hands but you guys are right by these stats. since 1/1/09....................

Just noticed in all but one hand I went to flop.......anyone know how to pull up just the times i jammed back?