Wow, definately an ugly spot to be in!! What sort of hand can villain be limping UTG with? AA/KK/AK/88/A8/89 or 2 diamomds, for me I wouldnt rule out AA/KK/AK/88, I cant see UTG limping a suited rag ace or gap connector/suited combo of 89 or any other 2 diamond hand other than AK, if hes hit a backdoor flush hes just got extremely lucky!!
He must give you credit for an 8 at least with your river bet and been in the BB, his turn bet doesnt look like a bet to try and get you off the pot but an attempt to build the pot. Hes not raising you too much and knowing its a limped pot preflop you could well have a BB special 2 pair or even a set and this doesnt seem to concern him, the river card could be a really ugly card for him but why does he shove and put his tourney life on the line knowing that you most probably have the 8 or the flush yourself, I initially thought KK but he cant shove that surely with the straight out there so Im leaning towards AK diamonds or 88 and for me AK UTG is a raise so I think hes pushing a hand with an 8 in himself and settling for a chop if you can make the call with the 8 yourself.
Im probably miles off, but I have had a go!! ;-)
" its only the good players that get unlucky and the bad ones that get lucky "
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