Fold A-K with two shoves in front of you?

This hand came up in a 45-player SNG with 14 players remaining. I was really torn... What would you do and why?

Full Tilt Poker Game #12951511944: $69 + $6 Sit & Go (96186558), Table 2 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:37:07 ET - 2009/06/21
Seat 1: EpicFail (2,715)
Seat 2: Chipless Wonder (3,633)
Seat 3: three point oh (5,027)
Seat 5: modragons (4,182)
Seat 6: Latuz (3,622)
Seat 8: bigbuck79 (2,200)
EpicFail posts the small blind of 150
Chipless Wonder posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chipless Wonder [Ad Ks]
three point oh folds
modragons raises to 4,182, and is all in
Latuz calls 3,622, and is all in
bigbuck79 folds
EpicFail folds
Chipless Wonder has 15 seconds left to act
Chipless Wonder has requested TIME
Chipless Wonder ???

You should cut out the results...

Fold is OK with me in this case. More players in the hand dilutes what you have in my opinion.

I do not like a fold here at all, you do not have a money making stack right now. You could quite easily be up against two underpairs to your AK, as well as a weaker ace and a lower pair. You have the chance to triple up and have a stack where you can win, as well as bully the bubble. There will be the odd time where they have KK and or AA, but not often enough to make this spot a fold.

If you fold here with AK you are basically playing for a min cash.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr Fill Good

I do not like a fold here at all, you do not have a money making stack right now. You could quite easily be up against two underpairs to your AK, as well as a weaker ace and a lower pair. You have the chance to triple up and have a stack where you can win, as well as bully the bubble. There will be the odd time where they have KK and or AA, but not often enough to make this spot a fold.

If you fold here with AK you are basically playing for a min cash.

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Well said. This is a great spot to have 10K in chips with 12 left. You have to gamble at some point and this looks like an ideal situation. With a little more than 10BB, I feel this is a call 100% of the time.

Call, triple up, and win the damn thing.

The first players range is going to be so wide that we shouldn't even be worried about him IMO. So unless we have some steller read that the second player is never calling all in with a hand as strong as aq or tt then we should go ahead and type "ONE TIME!!!" into the chat and call.

I 100% agree with Phil here, you have WAY!!!!!!!!! to few chips to even consider folding. If I have 14k or more I consider folding for about 20 secs and then call. If I have 20k or more in this spot I might fold, maybe, Like 1 out 8 times I fold or something.

to last poster: lol whats the reason to fold here if you would have 20k chips?

I would almost never fold. If i thought one of the players was a threat with chips, then I may decide to not get involved. Only because if I do and lose ,I now have a dangerous player with an equal stack. If I fold and the dangerous player doubles up I still have a chip advantage to bully with. Once again though I would almost never fold.

For me its a close call, your AKos is winning 41% of the time against the pushing range (top 30% of hands) and calling range (top 20% of hands) of both villains and with the pot odds been offered to you of 2-1, so mathematically a fold could be an option, HU Im snap calling, but like William said its the second push we should be a bit more concerned about, having considered all that and having railed a few of you guys whilst playing these games and seeing some of the hands that have been shoved and called Im happily shipping it in.

Does AA/KK really shove in this spot and risk getting no action? When both villains need to accumulate some chips. I suppose he does if hes villain No.2!!

Snap call and flop an a or k to win it all and cruise to first!!!

You haven't offered any kind of a read on either player, both of whose Ms are low but not desperate.

The only nightmare scenarios are if either of the players has AK, AA, or KK, in which case you don't have the equity to get involved. (20% or worse) The wet dream scenario is two dominated aces, where you are about 50%.

In any other case, your equity makes either play close enough to correct but as others have pointed out, taking your chances here will give you a bully stack the 35% of the time that you win here.

Heh, I guess I'm the only one that would be folding this most likely here...

The most likely situation is that the first shover has something like Ax (where x > 8) or some type of middle pair, and the second has TT+ or AK+. If you're up against a pair and a weaker ace, you're only ~33% to win. If you're up against 2 under pairs (another likely scenario), you're ~45% to win. Yes, you're getting the right pot odds, but for me this is a tournament situation where you would have to call 2 all-ins where you're about 99% sure you're behind (even if it's to two under pairs). I think you still have enough chips left where you can let this one go and try to steal in position, and use FE to your advantage.

That being said, I absolutely understand everyone else wanting to put it in and gamble, knowing that if you win you can destroy your table (and the final table) on the bubble, most likely assuring yourself 2nd at worst.

So, imo, calling is all or nothing, folding is grind it out and see what happens.

I think folding lowers variance and increases chances of moneying and calling increases expected value and raises variance. So if we can handle the variance of being about a 3-2 underdog against the 2 players ranges getting 2-1 on our money this should always be a call IMO.

As an addendum to what I said, I'd say that if you are a strictly math player, this is an easy call.