
Originally Posted by
LAPPIN
I call begrudgingly... you are getting a sick price with loads of outs but it's not how you would have liked to get your money in (ie calling!)... if the SB has:
bottom 2 pair = you are 43%
top and bottom pair/top and middle pair = you are 40%
set = you are 34%
one pair = you are 47%
flush draw with 2 overs = you are 31%
flush draw with an 8 = you are 17%
open-ended with flush-draw = you are 18%
gut-shot and flush-draw = you are 28%
the pot to you is 7200 and to make the call, you need to put in 4100.
Your pot odds are 36.3% and versus this range, I think you can justify a call.
the only two horrible scenarios are the flush draw with an 8 and the open-ended straight and flush draw (97 of clubs) - versus the rest of the range, you're getting a reasonable to excellent price.
There is also the possibility that the button will also make the call. In this situation, you might be getting an even better price and there are some perfect storm scenarios. In that spot you need just 4100 to win total pot of 15K or 27.3%.
If they both have sets, you are 37% (even better than if one of them does because they have each other's boat-cards)
If the button has an overpair and the SB has bottom two, you are 43%
On the other hand, you could be up against two pair and a flush-draw with overs where you are just 16%.
I make the call... but it is close so I understand the fold.
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