The way players think

[ozzy]

This hand has been bugging me for quite awhile... Happened a month ago at 1 2 Hollywood. Not much prior info, villian has seemed tight and passive, not creative.

2 limps, I limp mp with Villian limps button, sb completes, bb raise to 11.

Both limpers call, I call, button calls. Flop Pot 55$

Checks to me I bet 26. Villian calls, everyone folds. Pot 107$

Turn I check, villian bets 25. I debate a fold, which is fine here, but end up calling. Pot 157$

River I bet 25 (for value and as a blocker bet, folding to any raise). Villian minraises 25$ more. Pot 207$ - getting slightly over 8:1 on a call.

I want to fold, and tank forever. I was ranging villian on every street and I just dont think Im good here 11% of the time. He can have tons of hands here, most of which beat me. I have all but ruled 78, which is just too unlikely, blah blah blah.

For some reason I end up making a crying call and villian has for a chop which makes sense.

Not really concerned with how I played that hands, etc. Ive been mulling over this hand for weeks and weeks, not about how I played it, but about how I think players think. This is a common occurrence at small stakes live/donkaments (villians play/think so weird its nearly impossible to understand their actions)

Would like to get some serious discussion going about how these idiots think. To nearly every competent player there is just no way you can raise this river for value. Possibly as a bluff, but you dont minraise here as a bluff. This type of stuff is a regular occurrence and for the life of me I cannot break it down.

Thoughts/views/opinions/tips on how/why fishy players think the way the do. Since we can only play live right now, this is sooooo relevant, lets get some good discussion going on the subject before my head explodes.

[0906aad]

It amazes me too that some live players at 1/2 nl have absolutely no idea of bet sizing. Or people happily check/call most of their stack in the middle and then fold on the river when they failed to hit their gutshot. This is what makes live cash games so profitably.

[pillow100]

people at 1/2 live have no idea about ranges at all, I dislike doing anything light against these players as they will put you on AK jj+ if you 3bet but still call down with bottom pair. Just play really tight and value bet lighter and prepare to be bored

[Chipless Wonder]

I have a couple thoughts about this situation.

First, I don't think that average players think about hand ranges. Instead, they decide whether or not they are ahead or behind, and make their decisions based on that. In this case, I think the villain thought he was ahead with his top two pair, so he raised on the river.

Second, your comment about not being good here 11% of the time was interesting to me. Dan Harrington wrote that he always likes to use at least a 10% number for an opponent to be bluffing. I think that makes a lot of sense. So if you assume he has nothing at all 10% of the time, then you only need to be able to beat any actual hands he might have 1% for the river raise call to be break even. So I like your river call.

[HC28]

1st pot is $232 your getting over 9-1. 2nd checking the turn is bad its an easy b/f not check guess. In live cash bet your hand for value until you hear otherwise. If villian was competant at all he would have won the hand by bet sizing correctly. Theres so many things to say that both players misplayed in this hand not just villian.