I'm curious what a good or average expected win rate should be for live cash per session. 100 BBs? 200? Less?
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I'm curious what a good or average expected win rate should be for live cash per session. 100 BBs? 200? Less?
I say 75 big blinds per 10 hour session in an unraked game if you crush it. I kinda pulled that from nowhere. I doubt there is any real data anywhere to figure it out
I normally try to keep my live cash game losses capped around 100 big blinds per hour when I play. :o
Quote:
Originally Posted by wreaks
My records have me at around 32/hour playing 1/2 for last year. I was around 42/hour until I took a huge nose dive in November, and I took the rest of the year off after that.
I personally think 25/hour at 1/2 is maintainable, running 4 hour sessions. Anymore and I generally start losing focus. So about 50 BB per session in my opinion.
HTH,
H
Yea this is the key. If you haven't been on a few 15BI+ downswings you haven't played enough hands to know your true winrate. Until that happens you are running really good.Quote:
I was around 42/hour until I took a huge nose dive in November
For how many hands I've played online and what I've read about this subject I really want to say 20bbs/100hands is the absolute best you can do. This could turn into 30bbs/100 depending on your style since live games are unraked. This would equal $14/hour at 1-2 and $21/hour at 1-3.
But live play is wierd. I've heard stories from people I trust about a guy named stan going to vegas and winning 70 buyins in 1 month playing 5/10. From everything I know I have a hard time believing it but the multiple people said they witnessed it.
My guess is that winrates can skyrocket when you are constantly 500bbs 1000bbs or more deep with everybody.
So who knows what's possible.
If that's the Stan from Gemini, he could do that for sure. He is very good.
I guess anywhere from 50-75BB is good, while 100+ is very good.
Thanks for the input guys. If anyone else has some, feel free to add it. :)
The reason I have a hard time believing it is because I played with stan once before. I could see how he plays and how he could definitely destroy level 1 thinkers at gemini, but I wasn't THAT impressed.
Add to that the unbelievable part is that 1 months is not much more than 6k hands if you really grind. I couldn't make 70bis playing 1cent 2cent over that many hands. So there must be something I'm missing if his results are that good consistently. The game being uncapped and maybe getting some lucky donations is the only thing that can really account for that.
Sure, one month isn't very long, but if you catch a heater at the right time, I think it could happen.
I think you can compare soft live cashgames with online HU against a fish (you only play against weak opponents in both of em):Quote:
Originally Posted by FearToxin90
15-20BB/100 = about 35bb/100
35hands/h => 12bb/h
only if you play perfectly and the hole table is very weak!!
Don't forget that the 5-10 is uncapped ... so what constitutes a buy-in? I heard the same stories ...and I don't doubt that the people who told me were telling the truth (as they heard it). Could be true, could be exaggerated, could be a little of both.Quote:
Originally Posted by FearToxin90
I also sat next to a guy in Vegas at a 2-5 game who told me one night he ran hot at 2-5 so he sat with 1k at 5-10 (Bellagio), ran hot and went to 10-20. Hit a few monsters and went to a 25-50 game where he ended up winning
50k in one night.
Stan's story is possible ... I just don't think it's sustainable.
Stan is the best player I've ever played against, by far. He also cashed 9k+ in one night at gemini* that's 30 buy ins........... In one night.
For 1 3, 100bb is my goal and just under my two year avg. I really strongly feel that based on game selection alone it can easily be much higher than this.
For 1 2, I'd imagine its about the same, maybe a little more, but I've only played about 4 months of 1 2, and I hate it.
My goal is always 1 buy in, no matter what game I play in.
At this point stan really just sounds like a myth. I remember this conversation the other day.
Player: Stan would just raise to 11 every hand.
Me: Ummm, i can't believe the table let him get away with that.
Player: He's so good he can get away with it.
Me: Yea, If he's within 4 seats to my right and raising ATC he's gonna lose a lot of money
Player: But he plays poker on a higher level. He plays your hand not his.
Me: I really don't care. I can beat a random hand.
And another one.
Player: Stan would just purposely dump 2k into a game so he could use the 70% rule and win it back and more.
Me: ......yea.... bad strategy.
doubt you can outplay shovebots.
Joking, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by rryu87
Ehh. Where I play, the live games are raked. What's all this about unraked live games?
only at this casino where they have 5/10 games with 100$ min buyin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoops
Local card clubs in Ohio are unraked. A raked game not for charity is illegal.Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankJones
Along these same lines as the original post... what is your limit for losing in one session? Assume that the game is profitable for you regularly and you feel people are just getting lucky or you're just not getting any hands but feel like when you start hitting you'll clean up. Mine is usually between 2 and 3 BIs, but it depends how I'm feeling.
Not doubting you were told this, but that's not the Stan I knew/played against. He didn't raise to x every hand ... he mixed everything up .. which is exactly what a good player does. He was definitely solid and probably the best player I played against at Gemini.Quote:
Originally Posted by FearToxin90
As for the "dump 2k into the game" comment ... LOL ... I hear similar stuff about most of the other good LAG's at Gemini. Can't tell you how many ignorant comments like that I heard about Young Gun: He doesn't care until he's 3k into the game; he'll dump 2k into the game just to get the stacks deep and then he plays.
As for the giant cashes ... I've also heard Lenny having 5-figure cashes on several occasions. I also saw him up 5k-7k and then go home busted.
I don't have a stop loss for live cash. It seems like when I'm stuck 3-5 buyins there is usually gonna fish that is so deep it would be crazy for me to leave. I leave the second I make a bad call/bad bet though.
<sigh> unfortunately I don't have a stop-loss. I think it really depends on your style. If you can bounce back from a loss of a couple buy-ins, then keep playing if the game is good. If you can't, then I think you need to leave after x buy-ins (if you don't have a track record of every coming back from being stuck 3+ BIs, what makes you think you can do it this time)?
One quirky thing I do is when I am done, I'm done. I don't wait for the blinds to get to me. (cue the "they're free hands, you've already paid for them" comments). It's not that I'm afraid to play AA the last hand of the night, it's more that mentally I've checked out of the game. If' I've checked out, then I'll play the hand poorly ... which costs me money.
The one exception I make is at Gemini if I paid for the bad beat, then I'll fold the free hands in case someone at the table hits it.
Stop losses and playing stuck would be a really good topic for a new thread. Perspectives from people who multitable online or play SNGs or even mtts would also be interesting.
I only in the past couple of months got good at playing stuck. The key is I stopped thinking of cheesing for the day as a win and being stuck as a loss. I'm never going to be disappointed if I'm down 1500 and I only get 200 of that back. When I'm stuck getting even isn't even a goal for me. I rarely get even from being down 5 or more buyins, but I turn 5 buyin losses into 3 or 2 buyin losses all of the time which is huge for my bottom line.
Well, sure, a raked home game is "illegal," but they still exist all over the place.Quote:
Originally Posted by FearToxin90
Are there no Casinos in the Ohio area? I don't really know that area too well.
We just passed Issue 3 last November which allows for 4 casinos (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo). They are due to break ground some time in 2010. They should be open lst 2011?Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankJones
Otherwise, there are no legal casinos in Ohio. There are several right on the border with PA and IN, but technically not in Ohio.
Many of the Columbus posters play at CSC and Gemini (local social clubs that do not rake their poker games so as to keep them legal).
Does anyone know what winrates are attainable for playing 1/2 or 2/5 live? What size roll should I have for live games? 10 buy ins? Any other live advice would be appreciated as I have played mainly small buy in 90 man KO's.
try to have atleast 20 buyins if you plan on playing regularly. If its recreational it doesnt really matter how big ur BR is. 20 BI's is minimal in my opinion.
Pay more attention to your table and pick up any info you can from them.
I spent quite a bit of time at the Venetian cash game tables in Las Vegas last week. The general consensus was that a top live grinder there could produce hourly rates as follows (after rake and tips).Quote:
Does anyone know what winrates are attainable for playing 1/2 or 2/5 live?
$1/$2 HLHE = $10 to $20 per hour
$2/$5 NLHE = $20 to $70 per hour
$5/$10 NLHE <= $100 per hour
Note: a top player should be able to annihilate these numbers in a small local club that isn't filled with professionals.
Depending on who you ask, you'll hear numbers ranging from 10 to 100 buy-ins. My impression is that most successful grinders who really do this for a living use 40 or 50 buy-ins as their guideline.Quote:
What size roll should I have for live games? 10 buy ins?
Thanks Scott, I shoulda did a search on this topic.
Where I am playing now, in Gold Coast, Australia, tipping is not allowed and there are no hourly table fees. The play is very soft and I've been winning at 22-26bbs/hr. I've only played about 35 hours which I know is a very small sample size.
How long have you been playing in the GC? I used to play there often.
Been here 3 times for 2 weeks each in the past 3.5 months. How long ago were you here?
2 years or so ago. Right at the time when they legalized NL. It was the easiest money Ive ever made in my life :)
LOL, I was here 2 years ago as well, they had Pot limit at 4 tables on the main floor. Now that I think about I think I remember talking to a guy from ohio. I was here in March/april of 2008
While dealing at gemini I was able to sweat Stan's hands pretty much anytime he was in a pot & he is one of the best deepstacked no limit players that I have ever played with/dealt to. Almost anything most of those people at gemini say about the way Stan played is just wrong. Most of them didn't have a clue & the ones who did understood what made him so good. I can totally see Will why you werent impressed by him outsmarting level 1 thinkers at the gemini but his game def goes much deeper than that but only when it needs to. you two would make for an awesome heads up match tho thats for sureQuote:
Originally Posted by Headhunter
This makes a lot of sense. The same thing happens with Joey where I hear people talking about his game all the time and they are usually way off in how they describe it and why he wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by erminator06
This is me to a T. Generally, if I find myself stuck a few buyins it is a result of some spewmonster getting lucky on me a couple too many times. At this point, it usually seems that there are such deeps stacks in front of the worst players it is almost impossible to leave unless I am just playing horribly.Quote:
Originally Posted by FearToxin90
Some of my best winning sessions have started off being stuck multiple buyins. I have turned a stuck 5 BI into a 20 BI win a number of times. Granted, those were like 14 hour sessions at Foxwoods :D, lots of fishies.
Back to the original post... I never have rated my profits by session, always by hour. Mainly due to the fact that my sessions range from 4 hours to 14 hours or 50 hours in three days (how do you determine a session there?)Quote:
Originally Posted by wreaks
When I played Foxwoods religiously, my rule of thumb for play at $1/$2 was roughly $60-$75/hr. I am profitable in roughly 85% of my sessions with my hourly range anywhere from $20/hr to $300/hr. This casino was mostly recreational players rather than the mix of pros and grinders you may find in Vegas or A.C.
These days, not playing near as frequently, my hourly win-rate is probably more like $30/hr @ 1/2 and $90/hr @ 2/5. My most profitable game has become 2/5 PLO @ roughly $140/hr.
$60/hour at 1/2 is insane if this is true. I'd think someone is murdering the game if they could sustain $15/hour at a raked 1/2 game over the long haul.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerBroker
Since you played there religiously, I will concede that you know this far better than I. However, whenever people asked me about FW, I gave almost the completely opposite answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerBroker
In my experience the few times I was there, FW was a "destination" poker room... meaning people didn't happen into the poker room, but rather they drove there specifically to play poker. I would sit at a table all day and not meet anyone outside of the Northeast, and almost everyone considered this their "home" casino.
Contrast that with Vegas (never been to AC) where I can sit at a table and at any given time half the time is not local. More importantly, many people are there for bachelor parties, conventions, weddings, meetings, etc. They are there for something else, and stop by (usually drunk) the poker room. People don't have bachelor/bachelorette parties in FW.
My impression of FW was that top to bottom, the talent pool at FW was better/tougher than any Vegas casino I had played in (V, B, W, CP)
All I can say is I haven't made more money playing cards than working a "real job" since I moved from CT. The poker room was full but definitely not a strong field. Granted, this was before Moneymaker gave the game a significant boost, although I might argue that this boost brought more fishies to the tables than quality players.
The 2/5 and higher limit games were always very tough. At that time in my poker playing I only gave them a few cracks (not profitable cracks).