DolphinSo I am really confused.. been since december since i even ran decent in 45 mans... cooler after cooler... cant win flips in 75s... What is bothering me is I am checking out a lot of you and Im noticing some of you guys arent having the greatest success either in the last bit. Anyone have any idea whats goin on anymore?
Honorary Member
December, January and February have also been my worst three month span of all time. Not sure exactly what the cause was, but a lot of it had to do with me switching some things up at a faster rate than I should have:
1. I raised my ABI (average buy-in) from $43 in November to $63 in January, when a more gradual progression would have made more sense.
2. I increased my AFS (average field size) from 120 in November to 203 in January. Again, something more gradual would have made more sense.
3. I switched from four-tabling to eight-tabling. It would have been smarter to move up to five, then six, always willing to drop back down if my profit decreases.
4. I played a wider range of buy-ins all simultaneously, typically ranging from $11 to $109. Although the $109 games aren't much more difficult than the $109 ones, it's important to keep in mind which games are which, since they do require slightly different strategies. I haven't been doing this lately. Instead, I've played all the games similarly, which has made me lose value in them all.
I have just recently undid all four of these changes, and my profitability is returning. Yesterday for example, I played 4.8 hours and made $1,596 profit. So I believe I'm on the right track again (finally).
Last edited by Chipless Wonder; 02-27-2009 at 04:07 PM.
Carbon Poker: ChiplessWonder
My real job: Nuclear thickness gauge sales & service
"You get what you put in, and people get what they deserve." - Kid Rock
DolphinYea, its interesting the small things that factor in to losses. Sometimes just straight up confidence in believing that you can make the right moves is a big deal....
Ps thanks for changing the title.. it looked tacky!
Shark
I also think it has to do with the evolution of poker. Online poker changes over and over and over, much quicker than live poker. So what works one day, may not work the next day. I don't know if the fish/donks are getting better or if the break even players (roughly me til Jan) are getting better. It's the best players in the world that adapt quicker to that change and stay one step ahead.
As for the feeling like you're losing every hand, I chalk it up to variance. When you get it in 80% fav, you have to lose that 20% to make it poker. Yeah, it may feel like you are losing more than you should, but it will all even out eventually and you'll go on a run where AA NEVER loses. Hopefully for the losing players right now, it turns around quicker rather than later.
Shark
Ive only been playing the 45s for a few months now, but believe me I am going through the same swings you are. Of course you expect to lose a certain amout of races, but you are right. I have had countless beats when going in ahead, and even worse when going in dominating the hand. Going in behind, it seeming like I never get a break. Im still showing im up $150 or so for the month with the 45s, but just a week ago I was up close to 2k. I fanally feel like my luck is turning. Nothing crazy, but at least im winning the races more along the lines of what the stats should suggest. Your right I also have have noticed that many 99%+ers are having a rough go of it too.Originally Posted by Clover23
Who knows....but hopefully it turns around soon. I has too!!!
DolphinYea, what is sad for me is that in the 75's im definitely running below expectation.. but in 26's im runnin like a god... so in the end im up on 45mans for the year but it sure doesnt feel like it... luckily my high mtt buyins on stars and ftp are stake money so its easier to deal with that variance.
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