ICM call or fold?

[rryu87]

6.50$ 18man turbo on stars
the flattest pay out structure evvvvver
I'll give the pay out structure fyi...
1st 43.20 2nd 32.40 3rd 21.60 4th 10.80
but lets go with this situation.
ok, game is 5 handed, and traditional race for the money happening with 1 big stack and 4 shortstacks with less than 5 bb. now, the big stack has been raising every time and is literally running over 36/21/43 according to HUD over 50 hands. I believe ATs is hugeee against him but what does the ICM recommend here? I know playing for win is standard, but with stars structure being so flat, does it encourage a fold here? I've been tight generally i believe...

PokerStars Game #33172511244: Tournament #197723827, $6.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2009/09/22 23:37:37 ET
Table '197723827 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: ftphatedme (4064 in chips)
Seat 3: sutafish (3713 in chips)
Seat 6: St. Brer (1848 in chips)
Seat 8: bigsammy13 (2604 in chips)
Seat 9: jace1974 (14771 in chips)
ftphatedme: posts the ante 50
sutafish: posts the ante 50
St. Brer: posts the ante 50
bigsammy13: posts the ante 50
jace1974: posts the ante 50
ftphatedme: posts small blind 300
sutafish: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ftphatedme [Ad Td]
St. Brer: folds
bigsammy13: folds
jace1974: raises 4200 to 4800
ftphatedme: ???????

[siash69]

Given the stack sizes of the remaining players I'm sure this is a fold, especially as the shorties are about to hit the blinds. Its a spot I have found myself in quite a bit and thought I'm miles ahead of his range and pushed to lose for whatever reason.



When using the Wizard its also useful to have info on all the players still in the hand but Im sure in this scenario the 2nd player would fold if you shoved as his prize pool equity could increase significantly just by folding.

[rryu87]

god I love sit and go wizard.
ok one more thing simon. How about this hand, same game, rugby is running 34/11/75 over 61hands
btw, thank you very much!! you da best

PokerStars Game #33175882487: Tournament #197748856, $6.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2009/09/23 2:34:19 ET
Table '197748856 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: rugby_13gc (5250 in chips)
Seat 2: ftphatedme (3165 in chips)
Seat 4: santeg (4380 in chips)
Seat 5: black Search Engine Optimization (1100 in chips)
Seat 7: Enevitable2 (4890 in chips)
Seat 8: Volcano567 (4695 in chips)
Seat 9: aycore (3520 in chips)
rugby_13gc: posts the ante 50
ftphatedme: posts the ante 50
santeg: posts the ante 50
black Search Engine Optimization: posts the ante 50
Enevitable2: posts the ante 50
Volcano567: posts the ante 50
aycore: posts the ante 50
Volcano567: posts small blind 300
aycore: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ftphatedme [Ac Qd]
rugby_13gc: raises 1800 to 2400
ftphatedme: ???

ICMaments

[siash69]

We need a bit more info on this hand Ric as we have to factor in the players still left to act, but it may be safe to assume that if you shove the rest of the table will fold given that the bubble is approaching. So I set the remaining players to the very tightest of calling ranges to allow for that, but if you have a mainiac still to act this could make all the difference in the results, I have mixed and matched the calling ranges for the players left to act and the result can be a push or fold.

Given the original raisers stats I would classify him as a pretty loose player but his play seems a bit strange, he should really be shoving so what can we draw from his raise? Does he have a huge hand and wants action? Or is he just not clued up?

This is why I like using PT combined with the Wizard, do you have any HH with villain that shows any showndown hands where he has open raised? Also getting his SS stats may also help to give us a better picture of his competency.

It might seem like a lot of trouble trying to collate all this info on a player we may never meet again, but its not that what we are interested in, it is the scenario that matters and one that we will encounter time after time, so I think spending the time to go into the hand in more depth can help us in the long term.

[siash69]

[rryu87]

once again ty simon! to be honest, who knows what he had raising utg for half his stack lol. but my guess is some where along the 99 and below range. I dunno, I just ended up hating my self and folded it. for sit and go wizard, does it really matter what the ranges of ppl behind are? I mean if they see 4x and reshove, the range is so polarized that only few hands could call from behind. well.. since it is a wackjob 6$ buyin anything can happen imo lol

[rryu87]

hmm, 3 handed of 18man again... deadmanPL is a reg, and when he shoves here like this, I know that ICM will prob say fold no matter what but wouldn't KJ be an appropriate call against his range knowing that he is a strong reg?

[siash69]

The Wizard takes into account everything so giving it as much information as possible gives you the more realistic result, its like most things in that you could fudge your info to get whatever result you wanted or just to justify your actual action on the hand. Where a range of a player behind and his stack size would maybe effect the result would be if you had a deepstacked maniac in the BB whose calling range is wide and given the fact that he would be getting a price to call or a deepsatck anywhere that is still to act after you. But like you say in this scenario its more than likely it is only a premium hand that is going to call you given the stack sizes.

I dont think a fold is that bad either as its at the bottom of the pushing range recommended but given what I knew and the table dynamics I would have shoved.

[siash69]

In your next example given your stack size and the fact you are getting well over 2-1 (nearer 5-1) on a call with any two cards Im snap calling the KJos.

[siash69]

This is the first time I have looked at a HEM HUD layout so Im a bit baffled by the stats on display. If we use Rugby could you run me through what stats you have on display please?