Guys, I have an excel file with calculations of ROI and downswings. It is based on your places distribution.

Let's assume we play 69+6 45mans.

1.
IF OUR ROI IS 27% and our places distribution:
1) 3.6
2) 2.6
3) 3.2
4) 2.7
5) 2.2
6) 2.8

(obv I took my numbers), THEN!!!

it is 85% that after 1000 games played our ROI will be between 14% and 36%
after 2k games: it is 85% that our ROI is: 17 <----> 32%
...
after 5k games: it is 85% that our ROI is: 20 <----> 30%

Also I noticed variance depends a lot on places distribution... and having same ROI with a lot of 1st places and alot of 2-6 places are very different, and probably last example has less downswings.

Our pofit after 5k games must be 93773.76$ +- 18580$
Here is a picture. Blue line is an average. But it is in some interval.



2).

Ok, lets assume OUR ROI IS 15%
(I just decreased a bit 1 and 2 places)

after 1k games: ROI between 3.2% and 24%
after 2k games: 6.25% and 21%
after 5k games: 9% and 18%
after 10k games: 10.32% and 16.91%


Playing way more tables usually drops your ROI.
Did I just prove that guys who play less tables (in general) have less downswings?

I will post an .xls (excel) file with instructions later.