Fold Equity

[Dr Fill Good]

Fold equity is something which I just can't get a firm grasp on it. I've read about it many times, and I understand it generally. Such as if someone raises half their stack me reraising is most likely not going to knock him of his hand. (except of course at the 1/2NL at the casino... god that game is soft!!) I was wondering, what is the BBP's crew take on fold equity, and do you bust out any calculations when figuring it out?

[Chipless Wonder]

Good topic Dr!

Such as if someone raises half their stack me reraising is most likely not going to knock him of his hand

Exactly, and especially pre-flop. Even with no other chips in the pot, he'd be getting 3:1 to call. This means he only has to be good 25% of the time to make the call correct. And if are other chips in the pot (i.e. blinds, antes, limpers, etc.), then he'd be getting even better pot odds.

I've been starting to focus on this more and more lately, especially under two pre-flop circumstances:

1. When I'm considering a pre-flop raise and there's a player still to act who has < 15 BB. Let's pretend the button has 10 BB. If I do a 'normal' raise of 3 BB from the cutoff, then the button pushes, there will be 14.5 BB in the pot and it costs me 7 BB to call. I'm getting > 2:1 pot odds and I have to call with almost any two cards here. My opponent didn't have proper fold equity to make the push in this case, which makes it even more likely that I don't want to call him with air. This is a very poor situation for me to find myself in.

Reducing my pre-flop raise to ~ 2.2 BB helps in this example. Now there are 13.7 BB in the pot and it costs me 7.8 BB to call. I'm no longer getting > 2:1 pot odds to call and the fold becomes much easier. In addition, I saved 0.8 BB. Do this ten times, and you'll have 8 more BB. How helpful is that late in the game?

2. When I'm considering a pre-flop re-raise of a late position raiser who seems likely to be on a steal. The last thing I want to do is re-raise, then have the original raiser push, and be forced to call due to pot odds.

The exact same guidelines apply here in my opinion. I need to look at my opponent's stack and be sure that I'll have fold equity when and if he pushes. And I need to size my bet so that I can fold if he pushes - assuming that's what I want/plan to do with my hand.

And the converse is also true in these two examples. Sometimes it makes sense to size my raises in such a way that I won't be able to fold due to pot odds. A sharp opponent will pick up on this, and know that he can't resteal, because I'll be unable to fold. So if I send this message to an observant opponent, I can steal a little bit more successfully.

[Dr Fill Good]

Best answer to a question ever? That really gave me a lot of end game strategy to think about. I had quite a few mind blowing moments while reading it. Bet sizes and how they effect the math of situations has always intrigued me, and this adds a new level to the way I think about it. Now after saying that, in an un-opened pot earlier in a tournament do you stick with the 2.2X the BB bet, or do you vary it depending on situations?

[DevilFish73]

Doc great question and Scott' s answer is even better and very helpful...

[PokerBroker]

A good scenario presented itself that I feel falls into this topic at last night's game at Jarrod's... details may be a touch off but still relative to the situation...

Blinds 300/600... I'm in the BB... EP limper... shorter stacked button raises to 2000... it folds to me

I consider the EP limper to be a very tight weak player who probably limped with holdings in the range of KJ and will fold to a raised pot... I consider the button raiser to be a very aggressive player who understands position and is extremely capable of stealing from this position...

My initial instinct in the BB is to reraise this pot and resteal regardless of my card holdings... this is where I feel fold equity comes into play... I am currently sitting with 30000 chips... EP has plenty of chips and I expect he will fold immediately... button raiser has roughly 11,000 chips behind...

My ideal resteal raise here would be to roughly 5000... there is a good chace that I take down this pot, however this potentially puts me into a very difficult situation... if my opponent pushes here, I am stuck calling 8,000 to win 18,000 or getting >2:1 odds to call... I now put myself in a position where I've committed almost 50% of my stack with any two cards because I never took the time to consider how much fold equity I GIVE MYSELF...

Had my opponent on the button had 16,000 or more chips behind I would have left myself with fold equity, should my opponent push I now have 13,000 to call to win 23,000 (< 2:1)... I can justify folding here and my resteal attempt cost me the original 5,000 chips rather than 50% of my stack...

Thankfully I did take the time to make note of my opponent's stack and passed on the reraise attempt to pick a better spot to get my money in with any two cards

[charlton49]

Best answer to a question ever?

and yet, S2H is always trying to tell me he's too stupid to figure out the right structure for re-tabling his live tourneys.

geeze.

[Chipless Wonder]

in an un-opened pot earlier in a tournament do you stick with the 2.2X the BB bet, or do you vary it depending on situations?

My default tournament raise size is 3 BB. If there is a limper, I will increase to 4 BB. With two limpers, I go with 5 BB.

I'll start shifting toward 2.8, 2.6 and 2.4 BB once antes are added.

I only begin the above approach once the players yet to act start becoming short stacked.

[Dr Fill Good]

Seems pretty standard. I'm a big fan of just raising the pot until the blinds start to matter. At which point I tend to use slightly different raise sizes depending on my stack size in relations to the blinds. I find it really interesting that you lower your preflop raises after the ante's start up, as the odds to call are improved with the extra money in the pot, I definitely understand your reasoning, and I tend towards the same way just because I prefer small ball at those stages. Anyways thanks for the response, always great to get a grasp on these concepts.

[tincup]

Ok, I'm just a dumb truck driver here, and I understood totally what Scott was sayin. Actually been trying the same things myself in the later stages. And it's started to help me.. Scott, watching you has been really good for my ROI over the last two weeks. I'm profitable for the first time on Full Tilt, and the 11-45 sized fields I'm doing real well. The 27 person stts are seeming to be the softest for me. But that said, I'm donking it all back on cash..... If I can stop that I'll be actually making a br soon!
Thanks for the help and insight , this forum is the shiznet!!

[sprstoner]

i almost never fold getting 2-1 or better even if i have 32o. there is only one real situation i can think of where i would.

if calling and losing will significantly effect my ability to run over a table that was letting me run it over. this will probably need to be a bubble or a FT situation. and i only made the RR because i know the raiser is going to fold pretty much always. with all those conditions met i will fold my worst hands, sometimes.

most ppl wont fold if they have 25-35% of their stack in (preflop), if it is a bubble spot and a tight player who isn't very experienced i will test them even if they open with less than 10BBs, you will be surprised at how many people don't understand pot odds. and even more so the amount of people that will open/fold when they should only be opening if they are willing to call off, because of the high likelihood or a RR are a shove occurring.

always note players who have no concept of pot odds.

==

a few things i like to note too, i generally open 2.5x starting at 40/80, and it is 3x prior to that.very late game i drop it a bit more, maybe to 2.25x.

i wont raise/fold less than 20bbs ever (well always exceptions, but 90%), so i tighten my opening range up and loosen my calling of RR/shoves.

try to have a plan of action before you raise, know who you are folding to, if you are, and who you will call or 4bet.