Simple Maths in Poker for Beginner

**thang911** · 12-09-2010 03:21 AM

This thread is to answer all maths questions in poker so it will help u to understand how to play every hand at different street.

**Acesfull1026** · 12-09-2010 04:00 AM

For the sake of progressing this thread (although thats a great post Tim haha) lets say I have:

the blinds are 10/20 and we all have ~1500 chips. It folds to me and I raise to 60 with 8d9d and the button calls, SB folds, and the BB calls.
Pot is 190
The flop is Kd Td 6c
I bet 140, the button calls, and the BB fold
Pot is 470 (we have 1300 behind)
The turn is 2h (Kd Td 6c - 2h)
I check. How much can I call on the turn without it being a bad call? Is it ever appropriate or better to raise all in if he bets?

**thang911** · 12-09-2010 05:10 AM

Your chance of hitting flush is 4:1 so u can call up to 1/2 pot sized bet which is 235$ if we don't consider implied odds here.
pot 470. If u call 235$ and hit flush 1 out of 4 times u will win 940, u invest 235*4 = 940$ which is break-even. So u should call any bet up to 1/2 pot sized bet.

If he makes big bet, for ex: pot bet 470, u shove on top 1270. You wouldn't check/raise all in with pair or set here so you are obvious on draw here. He would call u down most of the time. You are 1:4 dog so cEV=0.25*3k + 0*0.75 = 750 which is -EV in the long run.

**sqrltyler** · 12-09-2010 05:47 AM

i'll add an easy way to approximately calculate odds/percentages in holdem:

Let's say we're dealt 5-6 of hearts, and flop two hearts. Our odds of hitting another heart by the river will be approx 36% or 3 to 1. (we'll make a flush 1 out of 3 times)

You can figure this out by first finding the number of outs that you have.

So we have 5-6 of hearts, and catch two hearts on the flop.
There are 9 more hearts in the deck that make our flush.
2 hearts in our hand + 2 hearts on the flop = 4.
13 hearts in the deck minus the 4 in play = 9 outs.

If you multiply your number of outs by 4, than you will get an approx % of hitting your hand by the river (9x4=36%)

If we don't improve on the turn, our odds of hitting another heart on the river will be approx 18% or 5 to 1. (we'll make a flush 1 out of 5 times)

If you now multiply your number of outs by 2, than you will get an approx % of hitting your hand by the river (9x2=18%)

Soooo...

Flop = outs x 4
Turn = outs x 2

Easy!

**Vestvik7** · 12-09-2010 06:47 AM

Originally Posted by thang911

Your chance of hitting flush is 4:1 so u can call up to 1/2 pot sized bet which is 235$ if we don't consider implied odds here.
pot 470. If u call 235$ and hit flush 1 out of 4 times u will win 940, u invest 235*4 = 940$ which is break-even. So u should call any bet up to 1/2 pot sized bet.

If he makes big bet, for ex: pot bet 470, u shove on top 1270. You wouldn't check/raise all in with pair or set here so you are obvious on draw here. He would call u down most of the time. You are 1:4 dog so cEV=0.25*3k + 0*0.75 = 750 which is -EV in the long run.

First paragraph is wrong I think. You dont get imidate odds when he bets 1/2 pot. You get 3:1 on a 4:1 hit right? And its only because of implied odds we can call that bet.

Second one is very wierd. You make some assumptions here thats very wierd. Are you check /calling turn and checking again on the river with a set/strong top pair? I cant ever picture you are doing that.

When you calculate if a turn shove is profitable or not you gotta calculate the % of the time he gotta fold for it to be profitable, then make a educated guess if he folds that often no?

Might be totally of here.

**thang911** · 12-09-2010 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by Vestvik7

First paragraph is wrong I think. You dont get imidate odds when he bets 1/2 pot. You get 3:1 on a 4:1 hit right? And its only because of implied odds we can call that bet.

Second one is very wierd. You make some assumptions here thats very wierd. Are you check /calling turn and checking again on the river with a set/strong top pair? I cant ever picture you are doing that.

When you calculate if a turn shove is profitable or not you gotta calculate the % of the time he gotta fold for it to be profitable, then make a educated guess if he folds that often no?

Might be totally of here.

1. You are right. I just went through the maths too quick last night lol.

We are getting 4:1 odds here so mathematically calling any 3bet >pot/3 is incorrect if we don't consider implied odds.
Quick Maths: If u invest 5 times and win 1 times, EV= 470+X+X-5X > 0 so X <470/3

Now if we consider his range 10s+, AJ, AQ, AK, JQ, K9+, 109+, flush draw (257 combinations). The odds that your opponent hits inside straight draw, OE straight draw, or set and u hits flush draw are negligible here (<44:1, 22:1,44:1). We only consider his calling range a bet on the river as 33, 1010, KK, AA, K9, flush<9 high which close to 1/3 of his range.
If u invest 15 times and win 2X bet on the river one time, you will win 470*3+2X+6X - 15X > 0 so X<470*3/7 = 201. Its defo smaller if we consider the chance he has better flush draw. I would say it is down to 180-190.

If he is bad enough to make a big bet on the turn and pay ur shove on the river, ur EV should be (470+1270)+X-5X > 0 so X<435

2. I don't know what u mean. I never c/c with top set or top pair here but most likely I bet/call with set and strong top pair on this board in mid-stake MTTs. I don't think its as +EV c/r with set or top pair as betting OTT unless u have played with this player a lot before this hand.

3. Imo your hand is face-up when u c/r all in on the turn so i give the chance that he folds to ur shove is fairly small once he makes a big bet. Its a clear -EV spot if u go through the details.

**Eemil** · 12-15-2010 03:44 PM

Thang911, mods, regs, beast and others,

Could you please do an example of 4bet hand breakdown with math? Pre or flop action. Of course it can be also a link to existing thread.

I am sure it will be very helpful for many bbp members, especially me, who want to improve their aggression and spot selection.

**jeanddjohnson** · 12-15-2010 05:36 PM

I just found out there is some strange game where everyone gets 4 cards but not all of them count. What are the odds of that?

**ThrillCory90** · 12-16-2010 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by Eemil

Thang911, mods, regs, beast and others,

Could you please do an example of 4bet hand breakdown with math? Pre or flop action. Of course it can be also a link to existing thread.

I am sure it will be very helpful for many bbp members, especially me, who want to improve their aggression and spot selection.

How deep do you want it? 100bbs? 50bbs? 4bet shoveing 25-30bbs?

Thang911, mods, regs, beast and others,

fwiw Thang911 is qualifies for 4 out of the 5 here. Mod, reg, beast, and sn thang911

**Eemil** · 12-16-2010 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by Eemil
Thang911, mods, regs, beast and others,

Could you please do an example of 4bet hand breakdown with math? Pre or flop action. Of course it can be also a link to existing thread.

I am sure it will be very helpful for many bbp members, especially me, who want to improve their aggression and spot selection.

How deep do you want it? 100bbs? 50bbs? 4bet shoveing 25-30bbs?

50bb would be very good.

4/5 yeah, he has many roles, Thang keep it together.