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Thread: nl100hu AK crazy close river decision

  1. #1

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    nl100hu AK crazy close river decision

    Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 164631
    The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

    BossenNadde (BTN/SB): $100.00
    Hero (BB): $145.00

    Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K A
    BossenNadde raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, BossenNadde calls $8

    Flop: ($22.00) 9 8 K (2 players)
    Hero bets $17.00, BossenNadde calls $17

    Turn: ($56.00) 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $23.00, BossenNadde calls $23

    River: ($102.00) Q (2 players)
    Hero checks

    -----Added 26 Jun 2009 at 03:39:50-----

    Shove or check river? Comments on all streets welcome.

    I've only been playing with the player for about 80 hands. I don't have too many reads on him. He's not a reg. He had 68vpip from the sb. He was moderately aggro. I havent been getting much oop and he has been folding to so many of my opens preflop that I have no real postflop reads on him. I have taken the bet, bet less than pot on turn line before, from the button after he 3bet and checked the flop, he folded turn. I've 3bet 3 times so far and this is the first one he has defended. I'm unsure if I took a good line. I was gonna shove most rivers, but on the q river, I was planning on check-folding.
    Last edited by ThrillCory90; 06-26-2009 at 03:39 PM. Reason: Auto-merged double posts
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  2. #2
    niner1984 is offline Dolphin
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    interesting

    my thinking

    i personally feel you should of bet more on the turn and made your river decision a lot easier i like betting 65 percent of the pot on the turn and not just 50 percent. the way the hand played out i am not sure what he could pay of your river bet with. i guess it is possible he has kj and will pay off but i just do not bet here. i check and if he bets under 30 i pay off because i only need to be right 1 out of ever 4.33 times. if he moves for his last 50 i am a pay off wizzard and i still call but i do not think that is always the correct play.

    i just looked at hand my question for you is do you think he would of payed off?
    Last edited by DevilFish73; 06-26-2009 at 05:33 PM.

  3. #3
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    Do you think he will push in without a hand that beats you? This is a tough one because the check shows a lot of weakness and he has enough behind him to bluff you off the pot. That Q is horrible. I guess this decision depends on your opponent, but you dont know too much about him. I dont bet my hand for value or to stop the bluff. This is the 1st time he called a 3 bet and he could have a set or 10j suited, he could also have JJ 1010 or KJ. The latter 3 dont bet for value imop and I most time check fold, sometimes check call(even the $50.) Im so weak. I havent helped much, but I dont bet.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePenguin22 View Post
    Do you think he will push in without a hand that beats you?
    Definitely an important concern. I don't think I'll ever get bluffed off of my hand. My opponents range should consist of mostly made hands. He will never have complete air here. There is no hand he can have that would want to bluff the river. He should always have showdown value.ccThe only way for him to have air is if he floated the flop with hearts maybe, and then decided to bnot bluf raise the turn which is very unlikely. So my opponents range is gonna be any kx, any 9x, jt, etc. So when I check behind even if he does percieeve it as weakness, he'll happily check back thinking his weak 1pair hand is good, or he'll value shove if he has ak beat. T
    Last edited by ThrillCory90; 06-27-2009 at 05:38 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by niner1984 View Post
    my thinking

    i personally feel you should of bet more on the turn and made your river decision a lot easier i like betting 65 percent of the pot on the turn and not just 50 percent. the way the hand played out i am not sure what he could pay of your river bet with. i guess it is possible he has kj and will pay off but i just do not bet here. i check and if he bets under 30 i pay off because i only need to be right 1 out of ever 4.33 times. if he moves for his last 50 i am a pay off wizzard and i still call but i do not think that is always the correct play.

    i just looked at hand my question for you is do you think he would of payed off?
    Yea, I agree that the turn was a slight mistake. I don't remember but I'm pretty sure my thinking was something like "He's from sweden, I've taken this line before, mayb if i do it again he'll do some kinda of crazy swedish monkey shove with air." I don't think it was a huge mistake because on most rivers I can just ship it and get called by hhis entire range, but a mistake nonetheless.

    As for what I range I give him to call with, I think he's calling with KJ, KT, I thinke he'll call with qj or qt, aq though these hands aren't very likley . I think he'll call with any qx that made 2 pair. I don't think he ever has 2pair that doesn't include a q or a set ever here since I would expect him to shove the turn every time with those hands. He's obviously calling with jt. 9x or 8x I am unsure he may be a complete station in which case a shove is trivial, but I think assuming that about anybody is a mistake until you get evidence.

    In the end I'd say check-calling is the worst option when compared to shoving and check-folding, but all 3 I would say are all really really close to 0ev, so you really can't do anything wrong on this river, which is why I think this hand is so interesting. Thanks for the responses.
    Last edited by ThrillCory90; 06-28-2009 at 03:56 PM.
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