Anyone flat calling here due to ICM?

[AAron the B]

Did I make a huge mistake by shoving on this guy 3 handed with a 4bb stack left?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 2500/5000 Blinds 600 Ante (3
handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t109901)
Button (t138156)
SB (t21943)

Hero's M: 11.82

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
Button bets t13550, 1 fold, Hero raises to t109301 (All-In), Button calls t95751

Flop: (t222902) A, A, 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t222902) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t222902) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t222902

Results:
Button had Q, A (full house, Aces over Jacks).
Hero had 7, 7 (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: Button won t222902

i play it the same way

[cdavi]

I shove or fold, so I'm shoving 77 everytime 3 handed there...lost a flip, ul, gg

[cardsfan04]

def. a shove or fold IMO. What are the payout differences between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd?

I prob shove in practice, but it might actually be a fold for ICM. How active has he been? Has he been raise/folding much?

[cardsfan04]

I OPR'd OP on the chance that his name here is same as FTP and found this was from a 90 man KO. So, I went to a website (pokertards.com) which gives you chip equity for everybody involved before the cards were dealt. The first set of numbers reflects every chip is worth the same ammount. The second set of numbers reflects the short stack's chips being worth a little bit more. I'm not real sure which set I trust more, but they are VERY close. Owner of that site suggests using adjusted numbers, so I suggest we do the same for this.

Unadjusted estimates

# Name StackSize Equity

1 hero 109901 53.24
2 button 138156 56.73
3 small blind 21943 36.03

Adjusted estimates

# Name StackSize Equity

1 hero 121701 52.57
2 button 149956 55.74
3 small blind 33743 37.69


Next thing we need to do is figure out button's raise/folding and raise calling ranges to a shove. Once we have agreed on that, I can run some calcs based on what happens vs his range when we shove. If our equity goes up, it's a call.

So, what are some good ranges? I def. am very interested in OP's thoughts on this as he was actually at the table.

[cardsfan04]

I just asked a buddy of mine who is good at ICM, and he says no issues w/ shove cuz BTN shouldn't call light, ever. I think I agree with him tbh.

[occams raisor]

I just asked a buddy of mine who is good at ICM, and he says no issues w/ shove cuz BTN shouldn't call light, ever. I think I agree with him tbh.

Thanks EJ, I guess when I am doing the ICM math I am not taking into account the % of folds I should get based on his range?

[LAPPIN]

IMO, the fact that the other guy is so short adds credibility to your raise - so much so that I think you might even get AJ or 99 to fold. He is not going to call you light here and risk being put in a race for 2nd with the shorty.

I think he folds 85% of his original raising range but sadly AQ is in the upper 15%. Unlucky on the flip!

[occams raisor]

9 handed he was very tight but he opened up once we got 5 handed. Raise folded once to me, raised A6o utg showed it down vs AJs and has 57% roi thru 2200 games on sharkscope.

Payouts $72,43,31

my $equity pre was $53
if I call and lose I win $31
if I call and win I win $66
I risked $22 to win $13 or 1.7:1 = 37% so I need to win 63% to break even.


I know I'm losing money when I shove here but most say it is the correct play even though the math says fold. I understand the ICM part but not the reasons why it is ok to make calls when the math is telling me it's a fold.