Call or fold?

[Rdsknman]

Full Tilt DS tournament.

Your sitting w/top ten stack w/36 players left. Blinds sitting at 1500/3000

UTG you have JJ and raise to 17k (too big?)

Wild player/Tilting pushes all in for 3/4 your stack. Everyone else folds..

Call or fold?

[Idontplay6s]

17k is way too big a raise. if you make it 6-7.5k it leaves you much more flexibility to maybe get away with it. Since you are UTG, you get more respect for your raise, so you dont need to make it as big as your LP raise.

As for the call, its imposable to say without stack size info, but, usually when someone raises a big UTG raise, it means theyve got a huge hand.

[dyehard]

Way too big of a raise IMO. Raise to ~7,000. With a smaller pot the villian may 3 bet as opposed to shoving. Now, calling or 4 betting becomes a much easier decision for you. If he still over shoves on top of your $7k raise, folding becomes and easier decision.

Did you call? Sounds like AK.

[Rdsknman]

Ok, w/the chipstack I had during this hand 17k or 7k didn't make a HUGE difference on whether I was to call or not. Yes, 10k is a chunk for sure but it still would not be the deciding factor on which move to make as I had plenty left to fold and still be top 10.

Having said that, other factors came into play on the decision. Wild player in full on monkey tilt pushing w/any ace and sometimes any face card.

I called and he showed AJ.

We know the end of this story.

[shortmat1444]

Key to this is a player tilting and what not. Can easily have alower pair or AJ and its you goign in as a big favorite.

But i also can be wrong. read a bunch of atricles where people fold KK and shit like that not becuase they think they are behind. But they think the person has 3 outs or so and can outplay the rest of the field instead of going in for most of there chips.

I find it when i tend to acutally fold these types of hands i win a lot more. I like calling in positions like the BB when the SB pushes when you know it can be an easy steal. Or going after the smaller stacks and taking there easy money.

[Rdsknman]

I am agreeing w/the size of the bet being too big. I am just finding myself in these situations where I have went fairly deep, and in this case a large enough chipcount to pick my plays only to lose a big hand such as this.

I am just trying to get a feel as to whether JJ is big enough for this type of scenerio to risk 3/4 of my stack that late in a tournament. Obviously when I saw what he was holding (AJ) I felt I was in great shape.

Thanks for the input! I hope to run into this type of situation again soon and make the correct decision.

[cdavi]

It is never "wrong" to get yourself in a great situation for a large stack when your opponent only has 3 immediate outs all in preflop. But you must remember that they will hit those three outs once in a while, plus the odd straight and 4 card flush too. As someone pointed out, some pros (while I'm not good enough to do it) fold really good hands just because they know 30% of the time they will lose and be done during the times they are running over a table. If you are crushing the table, why take the risk? If you are being run over and can't stop the bleeding, then gamble it up IMO

As for your hand, never raise that much IMO. I know everyone's said it and you know it, it is huge. I'm sure once in a while you raise with random hands to vary your play so you aren't so predictable (I hope ), and you won't be raising to 17K on a steal. That's way too much. On the other hand, if you have aa and want action, you also won't be raising to 17K now will you. If you do in all cases, that's OK but still not good. You are risking a lot and it has to work too often for it to become profitable. Where as if you use the normal size raises EVERYTIME WITH EVERY TYPE OF HAND it is more unpredictable and depending on the amount you choose to raise to. Sometimes it's even lower than having to work 50% of the time for it to be profitable.

That all being said, whether or not I am folding with JJ has more to do with me than this guys range. You know his range is huge and he'd shove with a lot that you are way ahead of (PP's, aces, etc...) but he'll also do it with ak, aq, kq type hands as well. And if he has some talent and he realizes he's tilting and appears so, he may even shove qq to hide the strength (and aa/kk if he's really good but most people can't do that) meaning that you have to look at the hand as a whole not just the result. How does JJ fair against his entire range. Lets say you put it as a 60/40 favorite. So now you are risking 75% of ur stack to win and be in great position 60% of the time and be crippled 40%. Everyone knows there are exact calculations you can do, but poker is more than just the math (unless you are a volume beast than you'd snap call). The other aspect to look at, if you win this pot, how much better are your chances for a big score. Better yes, but guaranteed? What if you lose, are you going to tilt the last 25% of ur stack away everytime so therefore having 0% chance. So, using my estimations, 40% of the time u have 0% of the chance to win while, lets say 35% of the time you win the big pot you will make the final table. To summarize, calling gives your roughly 1/5 chance of making a final table.

This is why so many good players avoid the big pots in marginal spots with hands like JJ. Whereas donkeys like me call and grumble about always losing with jj to aj. Good players fold and look to find better spots where they can reshove or call with aa/kk type hands (or nuts in later streets) and chip up slowly.

Thoughts?

PS: These are just estimations so you need to come up with your own estimations.